Solutions to Coastal Disasters 2008

A combination of natural and human factors are driving coastal change and making coastal regions and populations increasingly vulnerable. Sea level, a major agent of coastal erosion, has varied greatly from –120 m below present during glacial period low-stands to + 4 to 6 m above present during interglacial warm periods. Geologic and tide gauge data show that global sea level has risen about 12 to 15 cm during the past century with satellite measurements indicating an acceleration since the early 1990s due to thermal expansion and ice-sheet melting. Land subsidence due to tectonic forces and sediment compaction in regions like the mid-Atlantic and Louisiana increase the rate of relative sea-level rise to 40 cm to 100 cm per century. Sea-level rise is predicted to accelerate significantly in the near future due to climate change, resulting in pervasive impacts to coastal regions and putting populations increasingly at risk. The full implications of climate change for coastal systems need to be understood better and long-term plans are needed to manage coasts in order to protect natural resources and mitigate the effects of sea-level rise and increased storms on human infrastructure.

Sea level rise exacerbates the susceptibility of coastal regions to flooding, storm surge, erosion, saltwater intrusion, and wetland loss, posing significant risks to communities, economies, and ecosystems. Sea level rise impacts are sensitive to management decisions. Governments are beginning to consider how to mitigate and prepare for the effects of sea level rise, combined with other coastal hazards. Using North Carolina as a case study, this paper discusses potential responses to sea level rise, options under consideration, relevant coastal management and hazard mitigation policies, research and modeling, and the importance of public involvement and dialogue that incorporates sound risk communication principles. Finally, the author offers a series of recommendations for immediately improving policies in North Carolina related to sea level rise, particularly those of state and local governments. Many of these recommendations apply equally to areas around the world that are vulnerable to sea level rise.

The objective of this study is to provide an improved outlook on the climatology of sea level extremes by seasonal-to-annual time scale for the Hawaiian and other neighboring Islands. The monthly average values of sea level have been used to investigate the seasonality, while the varying likelihood of extremely high sea levels has been examined from the hourly sea level data. Based on the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model, the L-moments method has been used to estimate the model parameters. The bootstrap method has been used to define the exceedance probability level of upper and lower bound at the 90% confidence interval. On the basis of these return calculations and expected extremes of high sea level, a scenario for future shoreline retreat has been estimated to aid in decision analyses for coastal hazards management.

The Pacific islands region faces increasing environmental and socioeconomic pressures exacerbated by global climate change and climate variability. Adaptation to climate change and variability is ultimately an issue of sustainable development. Even without climate change, Pacific island countries are already severely affected by climate variability and extremes, and they remain extremely vulnerable to future changes in the regional climate that could increase the risks. Climate-related risks are not new to Pacific islands local government planners and resource and hazard managers. Climate change will, by and large, not create new risks, but may change the frequency and intensity of existing risks and hazards, as well as introducing some long-term shifts in climate regimes across the country. Adapting to long-term climate change will also contribute to our resilience to natural fluctuations of sea level. Planning to address the effects of climate change is most likely to be effective and cost-efficient if it is integrated into local government's standard work programme, rather than treated in isolation. Based on GIS and on cell by cell spatial modelling techniques and survey investigations, our study aims at assessing coastal vulnerability to sea level rise on Tahiti island, French Polynesia.

The long-term water level observations obtained from NOAA tide stations are used to estimate rates of relative sea level trends around the nation. Largely due to regional or local vertical land movement, these relative sea level trends can be quite different than the present rate of absolute global sea level rise, thought to presently be between 2.0 to 3.0 mm/yr. The tide station records are being used in conjunction with long-term GPS measurement systems to provide more useful information on global sea level rise, however, the key piece of information required by most coastal users is what is the expected change in inundation relative to the local land, regardless of cause. By looking at present statistics on inundation analyses and exceedance probabilities and then looking at the impacts of various sea level trends on those statistics, information on future inundation can be obtained for coastal zone management and planning.

At present, evaluation of sea level rise is not a required component of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Flood Insurance studies (FIS). Present day rates of sea-level rise are not insignificant, and the potential exists for these rates to accelerate. This study investigates whether current and anticipated rates of sea level rise are relevant to the NFIP considering current product life-cycles. Observed rates of sea-level rise and anticipated increases in water levels at four sites were compared to the statistically determined 1% annual chance stillwater elevation. The effect of sea level rise on mapped base flood elevations was evaluated using the Coastal Hazard Analysis Program. Results show that although increases in water elevations due to sea-level rise are not significant compared to the 1% annual chance stillwater, changes in base flood elevation zone breaks can occur over time-frames relevant to NFIP products.

Vertical displacement of the earth's crust and climatically driven eustasy serve as main components driving the relative sea level (RSL) change during the Quaternary. Whereas the eustatic change mirrors mainly climatic factors, the vertical displacement of the earth's crust has to be regarded as a result of isostatic processes superimposed by the regional tectonic regime or land-subsidence due to local factors. Using a simple model the eustatic and isostatic component of RSL data can be separated. Comparing these components by a "coastal index" the dominating factor of coastline development at sites under investigation — either vertical crustal displacement or climatically controlled eustatic change — can be determined. Based on this index shorelines can be classified identifying particularly tectonically stable coastal zones where morphogenesis is influenced mainly by the sea level rise and hydrographically determined zones of coastal erosion and lateral sediment transport. The Baltic Sea serves as a model area bridging between the areas of the uplifting Fennoscandian Shield and the subsiding southern Baltic lowlands. Subsidence superimposed with climatically driven sea level rise and meteorologically induced coastal flooding provokes permanent coastal retreat at the southern sinking coasts. Predictions of coastal hazards are made applying our model parameterized with neotectonical and long term sea level change data superimposed with extreme sea level data measured during the flood of 1872.

This paper outlines a practical approach to mapping extreme wave inundation and the influence of sea-level rise and coastal erosion. The concept is presented for windward Oahu, Hawai'i. Statistical models of extreme wave height and recently developed empirical runup equations (Stockdon et al. 2006) provide extreme runup levels, which overlay georeferenced aerial photos and high-resolution LIDAR elevation models. The alongshore wave height variability that contributes to alongshore runup variability is accounted for by the SWAN spectral wave model. Sea level is found to play a significant role in future inundation levels.

Even though sea level rise projections vary by place with incremental changes expected in the next twenty years or more, the reality of island ecosystems is that climatic changes in sea level rise exacerbated by climate extremes, such as storms, drought, floods, and sea level variation, will result in coastal damage and changes along different temporal and spatial scales. Developing a conceptualization of the populations at risk and the capacities of governments and communities to deal with risks will be critical. This involves the design of response measures for today, disaster risk reduction measures in the near-term, and adaptation strategies for impacts on the horizon. The measures, plans and policies must integrate scientific research, socio-economic assessments, and practitioner knowledge in the way we manage and use our ecosystems. Plans and policies must be developed using methods and establishing a process of integrated climate risk assessment.

Maui's coastal lands, along with many others worldwide, are under tremendous pressure from expanding development and accelerating coastal erosion. While it may be perceived by the public that the lands most at risk from sea-level rise are those immediately bordering the coastline, the threat to low-lying areas from a rising water table inland of the coast may also be great. Maui planning officials have begun to recognize that regardless of the uncertainty over projected rates of sea-level rise, threats associated with rising sea level should be identified and mitigated through a combination of modeling, mapping, and direct observation. This paper provides a review of current sea-level rise science and describes the scientific and management approaches being undertaken by Maui County to better understand potential risks associated with rising seas and account for these projections in long-range planning.

Coastal professionals recognize flooding, storms and tsunamis as hazards. Often the consequences of these dynamic hazards are exacerbated by coastal water levels at the arrival time of the flood, storm or tsunami waves. Factors that contribute to water level, such as tides or eustatic sea level are rarely considered themselves to be hazards. The scientific evidence is growing that sea level rise is accelerating beyond historic trends and, extreme eustatic change of several meters might itself be considered a hazard. To understand the role of sea level change as a hazard, it is important to consider overall dynamics of water level along the coast from global to local scales. Effective response to this hazard should include am awareness of how localized water level variability has traditionally been incorporated into coastal engineering and management, and the implications of future variability for traditional and innovative approaches.

Interannual variations of average wave conditions and extreme wave storms in the northern Baltic Sea are studied based on long-term time series from Almagrundet (1978–2003) and Vilsandi (1954–2005), wave statistics from the middle of the northern Baltic Proper, and simulations of wave properties in cyclone Gudrun in January 2005. The annual mean wave height varied insignificantly in the 1960s–1970s, increased considerably in the 1980s, was highest in the mid-1990s, and rapidly decreased between 1998–2005. The frequency of extreme wave conditions (H_s ⩾ 7 m) has not changed significantly since the end of the 1970s. The overall recorded maximum H_s between 1978–2005 is 7.8 m. The estimated maximum H_s in cyclone Gudrun was 9.5 m.

Coastal storms and climate observations have been compiled for east coast Australia from records going back to European discovery (1770) and settlement (1788). The 200 year record incorporates a wide range of indicators and observations on climate change, climatic variability and coastline response. While early 1800's records are indicative, records from the mid 1800's are more reliable and blend into climatic observations commenced in late 1800's. Analysis over centuries allows longer term climate change trends to be differentiated from climate variability. The study demonstrates the variable and oscillating nature of coastal climatic events over years and especially decades (climate variability). Despite multi-decadal oscillations of climate and coastal response, an underlying long term erosion trend is indicated by loss of inshore sediment and a retreating inland storm face cut into stranded late Pleistocene dunes. The trend of a slowly rising sea level is attributed to climate change.

Progressive increases in storm intensities and the heights of their generated waves have occurred along the Atlantic and Pacific shores of the United States, spanning at least the past 35 years. Those increases include the waves generated by hurricanes in the Atlantic and extratropical storms in the northeast Pacific. The increases in hurricane intensities and waves can be attributed to global warming, the elevated water temperatures being the "fuel engine" of tropical cyclones. The extratropical storms also appear to be intensified by global warming, but are significantly affected by climate cycles such as the range from El Niños to La Niñas. It is important to account for these climate controls in models directed toward coastal-hazard assessments, so that future changes in storm intensities and wave heights are included, in addition to the projected accelerated rates of sea-level rise.

A simple total water level (TWL) model is employed to investigate the relative importance of various climate controls on the potential for an increased probability of coastal erosion and flooding on sandy beaches of the US Pacific Northwest. Model results suggest that if decadal-scale increases in storm intensity (wave height) continue into the future, this process will have a greater impact on increasing the probability of coastal hazards, via the relationship between wave height and wave runup, than even relatively high estimates of relative sea level rise (RSLR) rates over the next century. RSLR appears to be more important to potential hazards than an increase in the frequency of major El Niño events (from approximately one to two events per decade). The combined effect of each of these climate controls operating simultaneously is predicted to increase erosion/flood frequency by as much as an order of magnitude for some beach slopes and dune crest elevations. These results confirm the need to incorporate climate-controlled processes in methodologies designed to assess the risks of enhanced coastal hazards to humans and infrastructure.

This paper begins with a brief analysis of different statistical approaches to the estimation of hurricane-driven storm surge probabilities in coastal areas and concludes that some version of a Joint Probability Method is presently the best available choice for this purpose. Next, information on the type of information required to model hurricane surges along the northern portion of the U.S. Gulf coast is developed, and analyses are applied to generate this information. Finally, an analysis of potential effects related to climate variability on expected coastal surges is discussed.

Several approaches for estimating storm surge frequency-of-occurrence relationships for tropical cyclone-impacted regions have been developed over the years. Evaluations of the performance of these methodologies have been hampered by the paucity of historical data. We present results for a direct comparison made between alternative methods of estimating storm surge frequency-of-occurrence relationships using synthetic data. The results show that joint probability methods are the most promising.

A long-term water elevation record spanning 95 years at Atlantic City, New Jersey has been systematically analyzed to determine the appropriate method to calculate the stage-frequency of extreme water elevations. The annual maximum surge is found to be uncorrelated with the annual maximum water elevation, indicating that a joint probability stochastic analysis is necessary for the determination of extreme water elevations. A statistically significant increase in the recorded annual maximum surge over the past half-century (1960–2006) is evident in the data, reflecting the possible influence of global climate change on the frequency and magnitude of extreme water levels generated by coastal storms.

Coastal communities in portions of the United States axe vulnerable to storm-surge inundation from hurricanes and this vulnerability will likely increase, given predicted rises in sea level from climate change and growing coastal development. In this paper, we provide an overview of research to determine current and future societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge inundation and to help public officials and planners integrate these scenarios into their long-range land use plans. Our case study is Sarasota County, Florida, where planners face the challenge of balancing increasing population growth and development with the desire to lower vulnerability to storm surge. Initial results indicate that a large proportion of Sarasota County's residential and employee populations are in areas prone to storm-surge inundation from a Category 5 hurricane. This hazard zone increases when accounting for potential sea-level-rise scenarios, thereby putting additional populations at risk. Subsequent project phases involve the development of future land use and vulnerability scenarios in collaboration with local officials.

To reduce their vulnerability to the economic, social, and environmental risks associated with extreme storm events, decision-makers in coastal communities need timely access to accurate information that affords them an opportunity to plan and respond accordingly. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) Integrated Data and Environmental Applications (IDEA) Center has initiated the Pacific Region Integrated Climatology Information Products (PRICIP) project to improve our understanding of patterns and trends of storm frequency and intensity -"storminess"- within the Pacific region and develop a suite of integrated information products. An initial focus of this effort is the development of web-based summaries of extreme storm events that have occurred within the Pacific region. These historical "event anatomies" include a summary of sector-specific socioeconomic impacts associated with a particular event as well as its historical context climatologically. Hurricane Iniki, Super Typhoons Chata'an and Pongsona, and Cyclone Heta are the events being used to create product prototypes. The intent of this targeted information product is to convey the impacts associated with extreme events and the causes for them to emergency managers and coastal planners in a manner that is easy to access, understand, and use.

During the high surf season for northern shores of Hawaii, large to giant surf creates coastal hazards. The National Weather Service in Honolulu issues High Surf Advisories when heights approach the high season average and High Surf Warnings for exceptionally large episodes. The issuance of a warning sets into motion actions for the civil defense, select transportation and commercial sectors, and water safety personnel. Thus, the forecasters need strong evidence prior to making the call. One of the most important tools used for fine-tuning a surf forecast is buoy data. Wave sensors of a buoy 407 km west-northwest of Oahu provide roughly a 6–12 hour lead time for the most common swell directional band from 295–345°. Typically a forecaster focuses on the measured significant wave height and period. Giant episodes have deep water characteristics of 5–7 m significant wave heights and 14–25 second dominant periods. However, if the wind in the vicinity of the buoy is greater than 21 knots, the significant wave height is augmented by the local seas, creating less confidence in the interpretation of these data. To better understand the potential magnitude of an imminent swell, the spectral density as a function of wave period is analyzed. This study creates composite signatures of spectral density based on historic cases of surf categorized by magnitude. The composites can be used as guidelines to improve north shore, Oahu surf forecasts.

This paper describes the concepts, testing, and application of efficient ways to apply the Joint Probability Method (JPM) for storm surge frequency analysis. Two optimization methods which substantially reduce the number of storm simulations needed to complete a JPM analysis are introduced. These were independently developed during two concurrent studies on the northern Gulf of Mexico; the methods are here applied to a common set of historic storm data for the Mississippi coast. The optimized methods are compared to each other and evaluated against a more rigorous reference standard, using a highly efficient surge model as a diagnostic tool. The results show that both optimization methods are capable of greatly reducing the number of numerical simulations required to reproduce the reference standard results with good accuracy.

In order to evaluate the potential maximum storm surge heights along coastal areas in CO₂-warmed future climate, a new tropical cyclone initialization scheme is developed in this study. Since the technique is not based on empirical and statistical models which have been used historically but the balanced dynamics of the atmospheric potential vorticity inversion, it makes it possible to simulate realistic tropical cyclone structures even in future years for which no observed data currently exist. Using a coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model with the initial conditions which are calculated by small changes in the central position of tropical cyclone, the potential maximum storm surge height is evaluated in the Ise Bay, Japan. The many sensitivity experiments suggest that the subtle difference of typhoon courses largely influence the amount and distribution of storm surge level.

Gonu super cyclone which occurred on 2–7 June 2007 was the strongest tropical cyclone to hit the Arabian Peninsula. This paper discusses the process we followed to numerically simulate this cyclone and its resulting waves in the southern seas of Iran. In this regard, the Gonu wind field was simulated using forecasted cyclone data for different scenarios based on varying cyclone radii. These wind fields were input to a wave model which was previously set up and calibrated for the Iranian southern seas. Then, the wave results were reported to the responsible authorities. This effort allowed the government to warn people living in the high-risk areas of Iranian coastlines, allowing for the evacuation of over 40,000 people. After the cyclone passed, researchers again simulated the Gone-induced wave field using a calibrated, time-dependent radius cyclone wind field, incorporated parametric wave data as a boundary condition and used the measured wind and wave data for verification of the results. Results of the new wave model were used for extreme value analysis of waves.

This paper will explain the US Army Corps of Engineers Island Program with respect to spectral wave transformation, coastal surge and island inundation during tropical cyclone events. Components of this program are the Pacific Island Land Ocean Typhoon (PILOT) and the Surge & Wave Island Modeling Study (SWIMS). PILOT is the data collection of the Island Program. It is designed to capture nearshore oceanographic conditions during a typhoon event. SWIMS is the other component of the Island Program and is designed to develop the next generation wave transformation, coastal surge and island inundation model.

An operational coastal observation system has been developed to aid the in service management of flood defence and coastal protection systems in southern England. Improvements to incident management have been made possible with the introduction of real time measurement and forecasting systems. Changes to management procedures have been adopted following analysis of long term records of system performance. Management tools to enable the prediction of defence standards of dynamic systems relating to overtopping, breaching and undermining are under development and validation.

Storm monitoring tools and post-event evaluation reports are required by natural disaster responders and coastal planners for accurate emergency forecasts and response, real-time storm monitoring, post-storm analysis, and land use planning. A nationwide, storm-fortified, coastal observing system enables development of these tools and reports. Coastal observed water levels during a storm, referred to as storm tides, do not include effects of wind generated waves, but may include storm-induced surge, astronomic tides, regional sea level variations and rainfall runoff into estuarine and river systems. If a storm makes landfall concurrently with an astronomically high tide, as with Hurricane Katrina, increased flooding and public safety issues, structural damage, coastal erosion and wetland loss can occur. To monitor storm impacts, NOAA's Storm QuickLook provides a real-time synopsis and analysis of oceanographic and meteorological observations in relation to the storm trajectory, and is disseminated in conjunction with NOAA National Hurricane Center tropical cyclone advisories. Archived post-storm data and technical reports contain studies of storm-induced water levels, currents, meteorological data, historical extreme storm comparisons and coastal inundation analysis.

Coastal areas present high risk in case of tsunami, hurricanes or floods due to the higher population densities. Traditional physical models or risk maps provide limited help since disaster spatial extent can not be available immediately for the emergency management. This impairs post-disaster response; more fatalities can be expected due to the uneven distribution of medical supplies, food or equipment. Geographic Information Systems analysis with global datasets on terrain and population provides new venue for the post-disaster response in the form of immediate (within 24 – 96 hours) model of affected population and geographical extent of disaster. Presented case study shows such example for the Northern Sumatra affected by tsunami of 2004. The results of presented modeling were compared with population data collected from the post-tsunami field survey. Obtained regression is statistically meaningful (R2 =0.58) and indicates that presented methodology can be a useful tool during the post-disaster management.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coastal Services Center is developing a coastal hazards risk and impact assessment toolkit to improve capacity for conducting locally relevant analyses of coastal hazards risks and impacts. The toolkit includes mapping tools and templates, training courses, visualization techniques, methodologies and best practices, and data resources. The toolkit is designed to be used by planners, emergency managers, floodplain managers, and coastal resource managers for multi-hazard risk mapping, planning, response, and recovery. This paper will focus on the case studies, the ways in which the tools are being used for disaster planning, and the strategy for making the toolkit more widely applicable.

Recent flood events in Hawaii exposed a need for better decision support tools during real time flood events. The NOAA Pacific Services Center partnered with the City and County of Honolulu's Department of Emergency Management to develop the Hawaii Flood Response Tool — Oahu Pilot. The tool was developed utilizing free GIS software, ESRI's ArcGIS Explorer, to allow multiple users within the City and County's Emergency Operations Center to utilize the tool without the need to purchase costly GIS software. The tool allows the user to interact with locally stored GIS data, such as roads and critical facilities, along with numerous real-time datasets from NOAA and USGS, such as, precipitation gage data, river gage data, National Weather Service (NWS) flood warning polygons, and NWS quantitative precipitation forecast data. The tool is currently being expanded to the County of Kauai, with the intention of expanding to the entire State of Hawaii.

An assessment is presented on several international hazard mitigation approaches involving coastal flood protection measures and the respective levels of protection of each measure. The information obtained for this assessment supports the fact that the design and construction of the New Orleans system of flood protection to withstand only a 1-percent annual chance (100-year) flood event is not comparable to other similar projects. The New Orleans' system of flood protection is significant to the economy and safety of Southeast Louisiana, but offers far less flood protection value than existing projects in The Netherlands and United Kingdom (UK). Examples of an appropriately designed hazard mitigation project for flood defense and public protection include the 435 miles (700 kilometers) of flood protection offered by 13 separate Deltaworks projects in the Netherlands along the shorelines adjacent to the North Sea, and the surge barrier and flood gate system in London on the Thames River.

By applying an integrated coastal processes model, this paper presents a numerical simulation example to present coastal flooding and morphodynamic responses to an extreme river flood driven by a hazardous typhoon event (with a 100-year return period) at an estuary and its adjacent coast. Numerical results revealed complex flood flow patterns and morphological changes in the estuary, e.g., bank overflow, coastal inundation, erosion/deposition, as well as breaching of a rivermouth sand bar. The differences of the predicted results between the cases with and without morphodynamic modeling are also discussed. It indicates that the coastal flood simulation results without the consideration of morphological changes (a hard bottom) may underestimate coastal flood and inundation. These results are important to the understanding of coastal flood, sediment transport, and morphodynamic processes during hazardous weather conditions, and furthermore, can be used for planning for flood protection, sediment management, and shoreline stabilization in the region.

The National Ocean Service's Storm Surge Partnership Project is a demonstration effort aimed at improving coastal resiliency to inundation through use of emerging technologies. The project's objectives include determining the needs of the management community, assembling needed observation data, improving inundation mapping, testing a prototype storm surge model, and developing innovative management decision-support tools. The Alabama and Florida Panhandle Gulf Coast region was selected as the project study area because of well-documented past hurricane events such as Hurricane Ivan in 2004. Additionally, this region has widely available observational data such as high-resolution topographic, oceanographic, and meteorological data for use in modeling, mapping, and visualization.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is responsible for preparing Federal Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) that delineate flood hazard zones and Base (1-percent-annual-chance) Flood Elevations in coastal areas of the United States. Recently FEMA has invested in a major effort to modernize their coastal guidelines and specifications. New or updated guidelines have been developed for analyses of flooding from the Pacific Ocean (FEMA, November 2004), Atlantic Ocean (FEMA, February 2007), Gulf of Mexico (FEMA, February 2007), and updated guidance for the Great Lakes is currently being developed. In addition to these wholesale updates, additional guidance has been developed for a variety of specific topics such as identifying and mapping of areas subject to breaking waves greater than 1.5 feet as an informational layer on FIRMs. This specific guidance, discussed in more detail below, along with a modernized Appendix D, facilitates accurate, detailed identification of coastal flood risks and provides one piece of FEMA's solution to coastal flood hazards.

For flood prone communities in the U.S., the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) prepares and issues detailed flood hazard assessments. Although it is not uncommon for an updated assessment to be initiated in response to a significant flooding event (e.g. Hurricane Katrina), it is rare for an event to occur in the midst of an ongoing flood hazard study. Between April 15 and 18, 2007 a moderate extra-tropical storm (the Patriots' Day Storm) affected large portions of the New England shoreline. Concurrently, FEMA Flood Insurance Studies (FIS) were being updated for several coastal communities in Maine and Massachusetts. Shortly after the Patriots' Day Storm, two-person teams of engineers performed site investigations of the affected areas. The purpose of these activities was to identify areas of damage and storm water inundation due to the storm. The data were used to verify modeling decisions made during the ongoing flood hazard studies.

Throughout the course of human history, significant pressures have been in place to develop the coastline. Whether these pressures are a result of commercial and industrial needs or recreational preference, humans have always tended to settle at or near the waterfront. While obvious benefits can be reaped from this anthropogenic pattern, it also results in significant portions of the world's population subject to flood hazards. With the potential for these hazards to increase due to climate change, coastal zone managers and planners require tools to mitigate the risk to this population. One such tool is Geographic Information Systems (GIS). With GIS technology being at the forefront of Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Map Modernization efforts, it has proven to be an effective tool in coastal hazard mitigation. The GIS technology is extensively used to evaluate land use and population change in the coastal areas which ultimately drives the coastal hazard mapping. The identification of risk requires analyzing large GIS data sets including topographic data (e.g. TIN {triangular irregular network} and GRID), orthophotography, land use data, and census population data. The GIS technology can effectively analyze these large data sets using the calculation algorithms built in to the GIS software such ArcGIS and present information that will guide decision makers. The 3D rendering capability of GIS software can be used to visualize various scenarios which aid in effective hazard identification and mitigation. The 3D GIS mapping and animation tools can also be applied to simulate various disaster scenarios that can ultimately aid planners in prevention of human and property loss during coastal disasters. In FEMA Region I, CDM, a FEMA study contractor and its partner OCC have been involved in numerous coastal hazard studies across New England. Together CDM and OCC have scoped total of six counties and have been involved in coastal engineering and mapping activities in more than 10 counties across New England. This paper will present methodologies to analyze various data sources and identify coastal flooding risks.

Recent advances in technology, specifically within ESRI ArcMap, make it possible to create automated tool sets that assist in performing coastal flood hazard modeling and mapping. These tools improve the efficiency of coastal flood studies, saving time and reducing project costs through the automation of repetitive tasks. Coastal tools developed as part of the Dewberry Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map (DFIRM) production platform (GeoFIRM) work within the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) DFIRM specifications. These tools, known collectively as the Coastal GeoFIRM Suite, have been used in the development of DFIRM's for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Commonwealth of Puerto Rico under contract to FEMA Region II. Customized versions of the tools were also created to assist in producing flood recovery maps for FEMA in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

JALBTCX has collected valuable datasets in the state of Hawaii in 1999, 2000, and 2007. Applications for the data include coral reef mapping, tsunami modeling, and nautical charting. In 1999 and 2000, SHOALS measured bathymetry on a 4- by 4-m grid for all of Maui, Oahu, and Kauai, the western shore of Hawaii, and the southern shore of Molokai. The data were delivered in XYZ ASCII format and paper map sheets. In 2007, CHARTS measured topography on a 1- by 1.5-m grid on the northern shores of Maui, Oahu, Kauai, Hawaii, and Molokai. The data were delivered in LAS format with several derived digital information products including first and last return DEMs, bare earth models, coverage maps, RGB orthomosaics and hyperspectral image mosaics. Advanced digital data products like the basic land cover classification and color-balanced mosaic were generated using a combination of the lidar data and hyperspectral imagery.

In order to implement the FEMA "Map Modernization Project" through the incorporation of recent advances in coastal storm surge and wave-height modeling technologies, a new study was commissioned to update the digital Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) for the Hawaiian Islands. A complete update of the coastal modeling was carried out starting with a new storm surge study. The Advance Circulation Model (ADCIRC) was used to model storms and develop storm surge values along the south shore of each island. The Empirical Simulation Technique (EST), developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), was used to determine the stillwater frequency curves for the 10% (10-year), 2% (50-year), 1% (100-year), and 0.2% (500-year) annual chance stillwater elevations. Updated stillwater elevations were utilized in the Coastal Hazard Analysis Modeling Program (CHAMP) to develop wave height and wave run-up analyses. Wave set-up for linear slopes was calculated using the Direct Integration Method (DIM). Wave set-up on reefs was determined using the methodology outlined by Gourlay (1996). The new FEMA coastal guidelines were used to determine wave run-up. The results of these analyses are used to map new coastal flood hazards around the islands using automated tools in a GIS environment.

This paper will describe a dam break inundation study that was performed for the State of Hawaii's Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR). The purpose of the study was to produce updated flood inundation maps for emergency preparedness and evacuation planning throughout the state, as well as to provide the basis for a hazard risk assessment for the downstream area. A total of 135 dams were studied and mapped. Dam breaks were modeled as single reservoir failures and also as sequential failures. The flood inundation maps were produced using a combination of 1 and 2-dimensional numerical hydrodynamic models. The paper will discuss the benefits of using a 2D hydraulic model compared to the classical approach of using a 1D hydraulic model for dam break flood inundation mapping. Pacific Disaster Center performed the study with the assistance of the University of Hawaii at Hilo and Danish Hydraulic Institute.

Managed retreat on open-duned coasts subject to traditional `new world' low density individual dwelling subdivisional development is technically feasible. It is not feasible for diked coasts of the Netherlands and Germany, or for high rise urban beaches such as Miami because of the high capital losses involved. Conceptually, managed retreat can occur both as a gradual planned process or as catastrophic abandonment, as occurred in Cyclone Katrina. While the concept of managed retreat is often listed as a coastal management option it is rarely implemented on a community scale because it is regarded as economically and politically unacceptable. Two examples from New Zealand are presented. The first is the Waihi Beach seawall, presently (2007) a case before the Environment Court, in which the affected landowners wish to be protected by public funding for rebuilding the seawall, and are resisting the concept of a `backstop wall'. A second is the vision for the long term management of the Coromandel beaches by the regional council which encompasses managed retreat and implementation of "backstop walls" on private rather than public land.

Santa Rosa Island is a migrating barrier island in Gulf Islands National Seashore, Florida. Two park roads on the island, the Fort Pickens Road and J. Earle Bowden Way, were damaged by Hurricane Ivan (2004) and Hurricanes Cindy, Dennis, Katrina, and Tropical Storm Arlene (2005). The National Park Service and the Federal Highway Administration, working together under the Emergency Relief for Federally-Owned Roads Program, considered replacing the roads with the addition of sand berms, sheet pile, and articulated concrete block. However, the agencies ultimately decided to replace the roads with low-cost designs that will have fewer impacts on important natural barrier island processes. The agencies foresee replacing the roads again after future storms, but the low-cost design will enable such replacements to be done quickly and inexpensively. This decision was based on scientific information, and will serve as a model for NPS barrier island management Servicewide.

Moffatt & Nichol (M&N) conducted a shoreline analysis for the Kahului Wastewater Reclamation Facility (WWRF) site, owned and operated by the County of Maui. The facility is located on an eroding sandy beach which was a critical factor in an alternatives analysis for an expansion/relocation evaluation for the County. The purpose of the shoreline study was to quantify shoreline erosion trends, assess potential causes for erosion, estimate the time before the erosion reaches critical facilities, and develop preliminary shoreline protection alternatives. The shoreline erosion rates at the facility can be as high as 6 feet/year, and critical facilities could be threatened within 14 years. Alternatives included no-action, beach nourishment, beach nourishment with sand retention measures, and shore protection.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) National Coastal Mapping Program (NCMP) collects high resolution lidar and imagery. The data are collected to help solve engineering, economic, and environmental issues. Two of these surveys have been completed along the Mississippi Gulf Coast, one that initiated the NCMP and another for post Hurricane Katrina assessment. The JALBTCX's products were used to determine the amount of erosion, accretion, and changes in vegetation that occurred on 3 gulf coast islands. Without a seamless topographic and bathymetric dataset it is not possible to provide complete erosion and accretion volume measurements. However, the area and volume for the total land mass of pre and post storm provide useful data to monitor the ever changing barrier islands. With the simultaneously collected RGB imagery the retreat of vegetation was measured and with future surveys that collect hyperspectral imagery more environmental impacts can be monitored.

The coastlines of the island of Crete, Greece are retreating at a rate that has increased substantially in the past decade. We describe here specific examples of rapid erosion. As in other parts of the Mediterranean, we infer that the causes are anthropogenic and include sand mining from the beaches and rivers, poor design of coastal structures that create reflection patterns focusing waves on vulnerable areas, removal of sand dunes to build roads, and coastal construction too close to shoreline. The underlying problem is the complete lack of any semblance of coastal zone management in Crete, as in the rest of Greece and substandard design of ports and harbors. We conclude that, unless urgent salvage measures are initiated now to protect the beaches and stop sand mining and dune removal, several beaches will disappear within the next two decades.

This paper will present an evaluation of the impacts of the Patriots' Day storm in the New England states of Maine and Massachusetts. The Patriots' Day storm was an extra-tropical storm or Northeaster that occurred between April 15 and 18, 2007. Throughout northern New England, the storm caused higher than normal tides, large waves, beach erosion and localized property damage. The Patriots' Day Storm provided an opportunity to collect wave and water level data from an infrequent return period storm event in New England. The evaluation of impacts includes a review of available tide gage and wave buoy data to characterize the storm in terms of return period or probability of occurrence. The paper also describes the findings of post-storm surveys that documented property damage, water levels and the extents of wave runup.

The United States National Park Service has begun conducting storm vulnerability assessments in response to past storm events that have impacted natural and cultural resources in coastal parks and in preparation for potential changes due to climate change. Components will be developed to assess, manage and respond to the vulnerability of park resources to storm events. Park-specific storm vulnerability assessments of natural and cultural resources will be conducted based on the likelihood of a park being impacted by specific types of storms events. A park-specific storm recovery plan with particular emphasis on assessing, post-storm the status of park resources and the development of short-, medium-, and long-term guidance documents to manage the park's resources is being developed.

Researchers have found that hurricanes are commonly recurring hazards for coastal areas. For example, just thirty six years after a very devastating Hurricane Camille, damage from Hurricane Katrina in Mississippi alone exceeded 125 billion dollars (US, 2007 price level) and resulted in the loss of nearly 250 lives. Congress tasked the United States Corps of Engineers to develop a comprehensive plan to help prevent the future loss of life and property along the Mississippi Coast due to storm surge. The Corps' study team found that structural solutions (i.e. levees and floodwalls) for this low lying area are extremely difficult to construct because of its many estuaries, bayous, and wetlands. They also found that the most cost effective solutions, and least damaging to the environment, are nonstructural in nature (i.e. buyouts, and raising foundations). This paper summarizes the nonstructural approach taken by the Corps in developing its comprehensive recommendations to Congress.

Following the hurricanes of 2005, a focused effort has been undertaken in Louisiana to develop a comprehensive coastal protection plan that integrates hurricane protection with conservation and restoration of the coastal area. In November 2005 the Louisiana Legislature created the State Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) and charged it with coordinating the efforts of local, state and federal agencies to achieve long-term comprehensive coastal restoration and hurricane protection. The CPRA was required to develop a Plan with clear priorities for delivering comprehensive coastal protection and restoration. The Master Plan produced presents a conceptual vision of a sustainable coast based on the best available science and engineering, envisioning a program that will cost tens of billions of dollars and take several decades to fully implement. By providing a technically sound starting point, the state has placed itself on an aggressive trajectory for addressing one of the most complex and time-critical water resources problems in the world.

Alaska's 47,300 miles of coast, besides being longer than the coast of the rest of the US, is widely varied in climate, coastal configurations, and stage of development. The Gulf of Alaska, Bering Sea, and Arctic coasts are each longer than either the Atlantic or Pacific coasts of the contiguous US States, so monitoring conditions for design of coastal works and for assessing climate change impacts is an extraordinary challenge. State and Federal agencies have only recently made comprehensive efforts in response to coastal erosion issues. Coastal management planning in Alaska is only just beginning to apply the No Adverse Impact concept to resolve development issues. Effects of cold climate and routinely severe coastal storms on construction materials and methods and on remote rural coastal sites are superimposed on this huge and complex setting.

A new method of classifying storms based on the erosion potential of its associated waves and water levels is presented. The Storm Erosion Index (SEI) and the related Peak Erosion Intensity (PEI) Index differ from traditional measures of storm magnitude in that they account for the joint occurrence of storm waves and elevated water levels in a physical way. Both the PEI and SEI are time dependent functions of the local water level and incident wave energy, and can be used to either hindcast historic conditions based on observational data, or predict future conditions based on existing hydrodynamic forecast models. In this study historical storms are analyzed based upon both traditional (surge, wave height, and wave energy) and non-traditional (PEI and SEI) measures of intensity, and then compared to observed shoreline changes.

Seacliff erosion plagues the coastline of northern San Diego County, California through both marine and subaerial processes. Heavy development on seacliffs and the economic value of beaches in San Diego County, California place a heavy emphasis on maintaining a healthy and safe beach. This paper illustrates the development of a rapid response program to study and document seacliff erosional processes utilizing a terrestrial LIght Detection And Ranging (LIDAR) system in combination with interactive visualization techniques to publically present this research. One of the cliff failures currently being studied as part of this rapid response program is described in this paper to demonstrate the insights that can be gained by observing the temporal change of a failure mass using frequent site monitoring.

Wave action on coastal slopes is the primary factor responsible for their erosion and failure. Ocean water levels are rising. Ocean water levels have an important effect on the intensity of wave induced erosion. At high ocean water levels, waves break at the toe of the slopes. The energy from the waves causes the erosion of the slopes and a notch develops as a result. This study describes the formation of notches in coastal slopes located in the USA, England and Mexico, and analyzes the effect of the notches on their failure. A notch in a coastal slope acts as a stress concentrator. If a slope with a notch fails, the failure starts at the notch where the stresses are the highest. Thus, a notch dictates the way a coastal slope fails. An explanation for the notch-induced slope failures is presented using the principles of Fracture Mechanics theory.

The National Shoreline Erosion Control Development and Demonstration Program is authorized under Section 227 of the Water Resources Development Act of 1996 (WRDA 96). The Jefferson County, Texas Section 227 project location fronts the McFaddin National Wildlife Refuge in the vicinity of High Island, Texas, 30 miles west of the Texas and Louisiana border. The primary objectives of the project are to minimize erosion of the exposed cohesive sediment and to minimize sand overwash. Experimental low-volume beach nourishment templates were constructed along with a dune. The objective of the nourishment is to investigate the longevity of minimal fill volumes composed of native beach sand or sand slightly larger than what is typically present on the active beach profile. One half of the total dune length was constructed with a compacted clay-core with a sand cover and the other half was constructed entirely of sand.

The Grand Strand is a 26 mile stretch of coastline centered around Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. This region hosts approximately 14 million visitors annually, and accounts for nearly a third of the state's tourism revenue. Ever increasing anthropogenic pressures on coastal regions in combination with rising sea level and potentially greater storm frequency make effective beachfront management critical to the economic and social welfare of the state. The Beach Erosion Research Monitoring (BERM) program at Coastal Carolina University (CCU) conducts beach erosion surveys to assist in managing South Carolina's coasts. This presentation will focus on the use of scientific data associated with the Grand Strand renourishment project scheduled to begin pumping sand in November 2007. The role of the BERM program at Coastal Carolina University in this project includes: pre and post-assessment surveys of beach geometry throughout the region, offshore surveys of borrow sites, monitoring of the project with beach cameras linked to the web in real-time.

To address the issues of shore protection and "sediment starvation" along the Winthrop Beach shoreline, a beach nourishment project has been designed to return the shoreline to historic conditions. Unlike most beach nourishment projects in the United States, the beach compatible material needed for restoration of Winthrop Beach consists of mixed gravel and sand sediments. Based upon observations from similar regional beach systems, it is anticipated that the coarse fraction of the nourishment material will be naturally sorted by wave action and form a gravel berm along the upper portion of the beach. Formation of these gravel berms during the winter months will significantly enhance the design life of the project by increasing wave energy dissipation due to the high porosity of the berm and reduce storm-induced erosion of the finer-grained material underlying the gravel. Due to the unique conditions of Winthrop Beach, an offshore borrow site was determined to be the most cost-effective and the only feasible method for providing nourishment material to the beach.

Sand impoundment caused by construction of the Santa Barbara Harbor in the 1920s, created an erosion wave that impacted downcoast Carpinteria Beach. Historic beach and shoreline changes were analyzed to understand continuing erosion using a combination of historic air photos, lidar, and physical measurements. The long-term analyses show a clockwise rotation with erosion of –0.35 m/yr at the updrift end and accretion downdrift of 0.3 m/yr. Storm impacts measured before and after the 1982–83 and 1997–98 El Niño events show similar rotation patterns, providing evidence that El Niños may be driving coastal evolution. Differences in shoreline responses between El Niño events show that the erosion hotspot migrated downdrift following construction of a revetment after the 1982–83 storms. Seasonal field measurements in the winter show beach narrowing while sediment coarsen variably alongshore. The coarsest materials and erosion hotspot are co-located at the end of the revetment on the city beach.

The rapid evolution of Dubai's coastal zone, driven by mega reclamation developments, requires a sound understanding of prevailing coastal processes and environmental conditions, including due consideration of the manner in which such waterfront developments interact with the natural coastline and marine waters. Dubai beaches are relatively narrow in width (due to rapid foreshore infrastructure development) and highly vulnerable to coastal erosion — an impact that has been amplified in some areas due to the effects of the new offshore developments on nearshore coastal processes. These coastal foreshore areas, as well as the reclaimed lands in the new developments are generally low lying, making the entire coastal zone vulnerable to extreme wave and water level events. Through a combination of coastal monitoring and numerical modeling a unique dataset of morphological response to mega developments have been compiled by the Coastal Management Section of Dubai Municipality. The knowledge gained has guided coastal management decisions to ensure the sustainable development and preservation of the Dubai coastal zone.

This paper is examining the issue of erosion in remote Alaska. In 2004, the General Accounting Office published Report Number GAO-04-142 Alaska Native Villages; Most Are Affected by Flooding and Erosion, but Few Qualify for Federal Assistance. This report stated flooding and erosion affects 184 out of 213 Alaska Native villages to some extent. This paper will show how the Corps of Engineers is holistically responding to this challenging issue then focusing upon specific information for the community of Shishmaref, located on a small barrier island just below the Arctic Circle. The main source of information in this paper came from the Alaska Village/Erosion Technical Assistance Program (AVETA) report, published in 2006.

Digital aerial photo mosaics and NOAA topographic survey charts (t-sheets) are used to map historical shoreline positions on southeast Oahu, Hawaii. The new PX (Polynomial in alongshore X) and PXT (Polynomial in X and Time) shoreline change rate methods are applied to calculate shoreline change rates from the time series of historical shoreline positions. These new methods utilize all historical shoreline data from a beach to calculate shoreline change rates and can find acceleration in the shoreline change rate with time. The methods are shown here and in previous works to produce more parsimonious models and more statistically significant and defensible rates than the previously used ST (Single-Transect) shoreline change rate calculation method. The ability to model acceleration in shoreline change rates with time provides insight into shoreline change processes, which was previously theoretical or observed in only small-scale studies. An overview of the methods is presented along with results from shoreline change analysis of four beach study sites on the southeast Oahu, Hawaii, shoreline.

Shoreline research in Hawaii reveals a disturbing increase in the trend of chronically eroding beaches. The loss of Hawaii's beaches is to some degree related to inappropriate siting of coastal development. As part of a comprehensive beach management effort to address this problem, the state of Hawaii, Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR), Office of Conservation and Coastal Lands (OCCL) is currently preparing regionally oriented beach management plans. The plans are intended to address beach conservation and hazard mitigation. The first step is to solve the current problem of ad hoc management and lack of interagency coordination. To achieve this, Hawaii will need to implement regional beach management plans to manage littoral systems as interconnected resources.

One of the greatest challenges for scientist, engineers and other technical professionals is to have their findings, recommendations or studies incorporated into the real world decisions of a community. To assist in this goal, two key concepts developed in the Hawaii Coastal Hazard Mitigation Guidebook are discussed relating to: (1) understanding the development process, and (2) using the continuum of elements for government implementation. It is shown how these concepts are applied to: (A) develop a new shoreline setback regulation for Kauai County, (B) deal with active subsidence and sea-level rise for an existing subdivision in Kapoho (one of the stops for the full day field trip for the Solutions to Coastal Disasters Conference 2008), (C) create a Homeowner's Handbook to Prepare for Natural Hazards, and (D) draft a new Coastal Hazard Mitigation Guidebook for Louisiana after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

The City of Gold Coast has a population of approximately 500,000 residents and is one of the most intensely developed coastal areas in the country. Much of this development is centered around the 52 kilometres of sandy beaches and over 600km of waterways and canals. The tidal cycle is semi-diurnal, varying from 0.2 m to 2 m with a mean of 1 m. Sediment transport is dominated by wave action with an annual longshore transport rate of 500,000 m3 per year. Three different swell regimes have been identified (Castelle et al, 2007) including highly destructive waves associated with tropical cyclones and East coast lows that generally occur from November to July. Major storm events have shaped the lifestyle and livelihoods of Gold Coast residents for many years. The earliest records of erosion date back to 1894. Cyclones and major storms have occurred in almost every decade since the 1930's. The largest storm seasons with the most damage occurred in 1954, 1967 and 1974. Since these events much effort was put into planning to mitigate risks of erosion. Recent research projects and management plans are improving the capacity of the Gold Coast community to prepare for and react to coastal disasters.

Through years of research, creative on-the-beach experiments, and consultation with coastal experts, the Duxbury Beach Reservation, Inc (DBR), the non-profit steward and owner of the 4.5 mile undeveloped portion of a 6 mile long barrier beach, has developed many successful, innovative practices in preserving the landward storm damage protection and wildlife habitat interests, while hosting extensive recreational and ORV uses of this very dynamic barrier beach system. Post-storm construction of two sacrificial dunes along approximately 4 miles of the barrier resulted in dune construction design standards that satisfied the interests of storm and flood protection to landward development and threatened shorebird habitat criteria. The design standards ultimately resulted in a 10 foot wide crest and 10:1 front and back fore-dune slopes. Thirty foot wide un-vegetated dune areas between 30 foot wide zigzag dune grass planting patterns were designed to allow shorebird traversing from ocean to bay side inter-tidal areas. A veneer of native dune sand is also placed annually over quarry sand for naturalized habitat appearance. Beach grass culms are now required to be planted 3 foot on-center to facilitate piping plover nesting and movement. Burning selected patches of vegetated back-barrier areas have successfully created new piping plover nesting habitat. After years of post-storm fill and grading, a cobble berm was recently constructed to protect the back-barrier gravel road: the sole access/egress to an isolated colony of 300 homes at the barrier's southern end. Funding for these activities comes from a lease of the beach to the Town of Duxbury for daily management, along with contributions to the storm damage fund from activities of the Duxbury Beach Preservation Society.

Wisconsin Sea Grant has played a key role in development of and participation in the Wisconsin Coastal Hazard Team. This multi-agency, non-regulatory team has provided research support, education and outreach since the late 1980's focusing on Wisconsin coastal natural hazards issues. Sea Grant's participation provides lead technical assistance and Education/Outreach support for the State's efforts addressing typical Great Lake's regional coastal natural hazards, including shoreline erosion and coastal flooding issues. Wisconsin Sea Grant has generated targeted research products based on the needs of the community, including: bluff stability and recession rate studies, GIS and web-based coastal management tools, aerial photography, bluff recession visualization models, setback calculators, and model shoreline setback ordinances. Sea Grant, as an individual program and a member of the Wisconsin Coastal Hazard Team is continuing support of the state, regional and local shoreline managers as they work to develop strong shoreline management policies, regulations and planning approaches.

Kauai's primary regulatory codes related to coastal zone management and shoreline development have not undergone a review and administrative amendments for 20 years. Some of the rules are inconsistent with current standards and policies related to beach protection and conservation. The University of Hawaii Sea Grant College Program (Hawaii Sea Grant) provided scientific support and policy review of the proposed ordinance amendments at the request of the Kauai County Council. The objective of the rule amendments are to improve the existing shoreline setback requirements and utilize modern scientific and coastal management principles in the development of a more conservative approach to siting coastal development with respect to known coastal hazards. This will in turn improve coastal communities' resilience to coastal hazards. A primary component of this effort is to improve the rules governing the shoreline setback area land use regulation through the prohibitions of inappropriate land use practices and increased enforcement options for the County Planning Department.

Puerto Rico's Sea Grant Program, together with the Puerto Rico Seismic Network, has worked extensively on the local tsunami threat, leading to the establishment of the Puerto Rico Tsunami Warning and Mitigation Program, followed by the preparation of tsunami flood maps for all of Puerto Rico, the declaration of the city of Mayaguez as a Tsunami Ready city, and the inclusion of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands in the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. Work in tsunami and other coastal natural hazard mitigation efforts (a storm surge vulnerability study for the whole island has been finished), has shown Sea Grant to be both an expert in the field and a key contributor to ongoing resiliency and resource conservation efforts. This has lead to Sea Grant's personnel participation in region-wide IOC sponsored meetings aimed at establishment of a Caribbean Early Warning System for Tsunami and Other Coastal Hazards.

A study of Louisiana's nineteen coastal parishes revealed an absence of formal considerations of natural hazards in most planning initiatives. In most cases hazard mitigation is limited to the minimum standards of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and state-mandated building codes neither of which account for subsidence and relative sea level rise. Other states facing similar flooding hazards have successfully mandated planning for them at the local level. Louisiana should require planning for hazards in the coastal zone that are more protective than the NFIP and account for the state's unique coastal physical environment. Detailed measures are recommended.

A review of the disaster recovery literature and observations in practice shows that the three types of assistance (funding, policy and technical assistance) provided before and after disasters has not been described collectively, including their potential to function as an interconnected system guided by an operational plan. Instead, past work has tended to focus on individual elements of programs and policies, funding sources, or the means by which recovery policies are implemented. This approach has led to a limited understanding of the process and the suboptimal application of disaster assistance. The purpose of this research is to describe the organizations found in the disaster aid network, the types of aid they provide, and how they can be more effectively integrated into a broader, action-oriented framework. The proposed model is intended to more accurately describe the approach taken in the United States, while assisting practitioners more effectively coordinate the process, emphasizing the potential role of planning.

The Florida Hurricanes of 2004 (Charley, Jeanne, Ivan, and Frances) and Hurricanes Dennis, Rita, Katrina, and Wilma in 2005 represent an unprecedented sequence of major storms to ravage one province of the country—the Gulf of Mexico. In the history of European settlement, no other region has had to recover from such a series of devastating events. These storms caused approximately $60 billion in federal damages alone, not including costs to state and local governments and the private sector. This paper describes initial efforts to use the Gulf of Mexico regional governance structure to address these hurricane losses and promote increased community resilience.

The NOAA Coastal Storms Program (CSP) was established in 2002 to address region specific products to improve coastal communities' resilience to coastal storms. From improved observations to development of forecast models, maps, and a suite of other information tools, NOAA is working with local, state and federal organizations on site specific projects to make CSP's goals successful. CSP is currently working in four regions: Northeast Florida, the Pacific Northwest (lower Columbia River), Southern California, and the Gulf of Mexico.

The impacts of Hurricane Camille in 1969 had faded as development along Mississippi's coast intensified. Thirty six years later, Hurricane Katrina in Mississippi exceeded 125 billion dollars in damages and resulted in the loss of 238 lives. After Katrina, Congress tasked Mobile District to complete a comprehensive study on what steps could be taken to help prevent future hurricane damage on Mississippi's Coast. A structural "Lines of Defense" concept was drafted that started with the offshore barrier islands and progressed inland. Other storm reduction concepts were also considered. As structural concepts were presented during public workshops, the idea of limited hurricane defense was favored as long as it was "not in my backyard". Now re-development in flood-prone areas has begun. Along with the rush back to the waterfront, many types of surge defenses are now being shunned if they affect the aesthetic appeal along the coast.

The International Hurricane Research Center (IHRC) has developed a new research approach to better understand hurricane-induced effects on residential and low-rise commercial buildings through full-scale, destructive testing, much the same way that the automobile industry tackled the crash worthiness issue and the earthquake community approached building safety. Through full-scale destructive testing, performance-based evaluation, and failure-mode analysis, innovative mitigation techniques and products will be developed.

To cope with cyclones, the people in coastal areas of Bangladesh apply early warnings received from nature and undertake protection measures at the household and community levels. Indigenous knowledge reveals the hand-on-experience by people living in close contact with the nature which is transmitted from one generation to the next through oral and behavioral tradition. This knowledge, representing a rich source of generational practices for cyclone preparedness, is now becoming extinct due to inadequate documentation. They can be termed as a socio-cultural and economic resource, which has reduced property and lives damages from cyclones for years. This study was conducted using Participatory Risk Assessment tools, semi-structured questionnaire surveys, and visual survey. It explored indigenous understandings and practices for cyclone preparedness. It also evaluated the efficiency and effectiveness of both structural and non-structural preparedness mechanisms, especially warning and practices of housing construction.

This paper presents the design framework of a hurricane storm surge damage model for residential structures. Current flood damage models include depth-damage functions for slowly rising, low velocity floodwaters, but do not model building damage resulting from coastal flooding with high velocity flows and wave action. The proposed framework uses hazard information obtained from storm surge models and analysis of wave forces combined with building inventory data as inputs to an engineering model that estimates building damage.

We are lucky in Hawaii because hurricane-strength tropical storms are very infrequent events, however when they do occur the damage potential, including loss of life, can be very high. Because we are an island, and the storm approach can be highly variable and difficult to accurately predict ahead of time, virtually the entire island shoreline has an equal chance of a direct strike by hurricane strength waves. Coastal evacuation takes time, State Civil Defense and the Police Department estimates a minimum of three hours to evacuate, thus planning ahead to identify the hazard zone and develop an evacuation strategy can help reduce risks. Sea Engineering, Inc. has conducted hypothetical hurricane inundation studies for the islands of Oahu and Kauai to identify large scale coastal inundation limits for hurricane evacuation planning by Civil Defense agencies. The analysis methodology uses standard coastal engineering techniques and methodology to assess the deepwater wind and wave fields, the nearshore breaker heights and water level rise, and the wave runup and inundation resulting from hypothetical scenario hurricanes which could occur in the Hawaiian Islands.

For almost 30 years, the standard for conducting Hurricane Evacuation Studies (HES) was determined by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. A traditional HES consist of the following five major analyses: (Hazards- Estimating wind and surge hazards; Vulnerability- Identifies areas, populations and facilities vulnerable to a storm's effects; Behavioral- estimates behavioral tendencies of the threatened population; Shelter- Inventory and assessment of public shelter facilities and locations and Transportation- Estimates of the clearance times required for a safe and timely evacuation of the threatened population). All relevant technical data supporting a HES is compiled and presented in a Technical Data Report (TDR). This TDR becomes the HES reference document for all back-up data. A Modernized Hurricane Preparedness Study will assess other hurricane effects on the community beyond the evacuation of the public at risk. Utilizing the power of GIS technologies, community officials will have a toolset to assist them in their decision making prior to and after a storm event and this will allow decisions to be made with more accurate and timely information.

Hurricane Katrina revealed that earthen levees appear to be most vulnerable to erosion damage when water overtops the levee crown and flows down the protected-side slope. Prevention of overtopping damage on grass-covered levee slopes requires reliable engineering design criteria for specifying permissible overtopping rates. Where overtopping flows are expected to exceed the permissible criterion for grass-covered slopes, design guidance is needed for estimating hydrodynamic loading and response of proposed armoring alternatives. This paper summarizes existing guidance that can be used to design overtopping protection alternatives, and it describes what additional guidance is needed for situations where no design guidance is presently available.

A model system for the simulation of the breaching process induced by both wave overtopping from the shoreward side of dikes and wave impacts from the seaside, has been developed and is described in this paper. The model system is made of a preliminary model and a detailed model. The former has been used to simulate the breach formation and growth in a real coastal dike, including the effects of waves and grass protection. Details of the models are given and exemplary results are compared to each other. Furthermore, inundation models have been applied to model the flood induced by dike breaching where the uncertainties of the model and further research requirements are discussed in more detail.

Oregon Statewide Planning Goal 18 places descriptive limits on where permits for ocean shoreline protective structures (SPS) can be issued, namely, where development existed on January 1, 1977. This requirement has been problematic for local governments and state regulatory agencies, however. The definition of development in Goal 18 is complicated, and has been misinterpreted in the past. Some local governments have not completed geographic inventories of ocean front properties that meet the developed criteria. The lack of publicly available inventories has created surprises for property owners, and makes proactive planning difficult. The Oregon Coastal Management Program (OCMP) has recognized the need to work with local governments to build a GIS database of the properties eligible for SPS permits, and work is currently underway. The mapped inventory will serve a variety of purposes for state and local agencies, as well as for consultants and the general public.

Following the 2004 hurricane season a performance based evaluation was completed of coastal armoring structures throughout the state of Florida. The purpose of this evaluation was to determine the survivability of armoring structures and identify common causes of failure including loss of foundation, insufficient penetration depths, scour, flanking of returns and overtopping. The evaluation included a compilation and review of available data in order to identify and characterize coastal armoring structures which sustained damage as a result of the hurricane. From this review, one hundred and eleven armoring structures were identified statewide. These results were used by statewide regulatory agencies in processing permit requests. A literature review was conducted to identify published findings regarding the performance of coastal armoring structures. Five studies were chosen and compared to the results of this evaluation.

Agencies in the public and private sectors have attempted to address waterfront facility management by developing various inspection and maintenance programs. Efforts have focused primarily on the evaluation of structural elements, which typically represent the greatest life safety concern. The objectives of this paper are to provide a brief introduction to a broad array of waterfront facility management concepts, and to illustrate how the systematic application of these concepts may assist in minimizing the likelihood of waterfront disasters. The arguably unrecognized importance of performing not only regularly scheduled — but objective and repeatable — condition assessments is also addressed.

Damages to Kawaihae Harbor from the 2006 Kiholo Bay, Hawaii earthquake revealed aspects of both resiliency and vulnerability in small to medium size American ports. This paper presents an overview of the FEMA hazard mitigation study at Kawaihae Harbor and associated mitigation guidance developed for Pacific Island Ports. It describes the emergency operations, damages, developing the site response ground motions, evaluation of liquefaction and a performance assessment of the three primary piers and waterfront structures. The study is intended to aid the goal of timely and effective emergency response measures and restoration of services with limited locally available resources and low-cost mitigation measures. The FEMA recommendations are useful for evaluating seismic hazard mitigation at port facilities in American territories in the Pacific and the rest of the country, where ports have been constructed with similar design criteria and are subject to similar risks.

Concrete block quay walls consist of solid or hollow concrete blocks sitting on each other to form the wall section. In this type of walls geotechnical conditions, design calculations and the ability of contractor determine the blocks dimensions. In these walls, resistance against applied loads is provided by wall weight. To reduce active soil pressure and increasing the wall stability in seismic regions, a hunchback section is formed by placing a protruding knapsack to the landside. In the knapsack formation, wall stability will be increased. For knapsack section special considerations such as trimming the blocks, more accuracy in setting the blocks and consequently increases in construction costs should be considered. In this article, by conducting pseudo-static analysis in different earthquake levels and for various wall heights relative comparisons have been evaluated between knapsack and simple (vertical front face) sections. Finally suggestions about proper section of quay wall have been recommended.

Drawing on a systematic review of coastal hazard vulnerability in Southeast Asia, an analysis of emerging post-disaster vulnerabilities in Sri Lanka and Indonesia after the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, and a global consultative process and expert analysis of the human dimensions of vulnerability to global environmental change that included an analysis of coastal urbanization and climate change, this paper aims to summarise key findings on the state of knowledge of the causal factors contributing to social vulnerability to coastal hazards and the relevance of current research for practitioners and policymakers. Whilst the scientific understanding of the increasingly complex and interacting socio-economic and environmental processes contributing to vulnerability has improved considerably during the last decades, important challenges remain in translating these insights into operational assessment methodologies for practitioners and tools for decision-makers to develop effective management strategies and policies to reduce vulnerability and build resilience against environmental risks. The results of this analysis indicate an urgent need to develop and apply approaches that focus more strongly on the needs of those affected by disasters and to create processes that enable better communication and learning between researchers, practitioners and policymakers.

Stakeholder engagement is widely acknowledged as a necessary component of strategy building processes for coastal management. However perceptions regarding the nature, processes and value of engagement vary considerably. Using London and the Thames Estuary as a case-study, this paper argues that coastal managers and scientists should expect engagement to be challenging. After all, engagement is embedded in the complexities of how individuals and communities perceive coastal `problems', as well as the reality of the complex physical and social environments within such problems emerge. However an important message is that whilst engagement may be difficult, it is a key vehicle for gaining new insights in to both the nature of complex coastal problems and options for increasing the sustainability of coastal management. "Conversation" is critical to learning and therefore to more successful integration of our understanding of coastal behaviour and subsequent policy approaches for coastal management.

Many coastal areas throughout the world are undergoing rapid transition in terms of population growth and development. The perceived utopia of these coastal areas is driving a "sea change" phenomenon in several parts of coastal Australia, where some local municipalities are experiencing annual growth rates of around 4%. While the actual increases may be quite small when compared to net population growth within cities, the impacts on social capital and identity within these smaller communities are pronounced. These impacts are further exacerbated by surges in visitor numbers during holiday periods. The declining social fabric within transitional coastal communities affects the capacity of those communities to respond to coastal disasters. The reduced capacity to respond is compounded where power relationships and access to resources are disproportionately skewed from communities of place to communities of interest and association. A participatory approach to determining vulnerabilities in these areas can be used as a basis to assess capacity; as well as, provide a mechanism for social learning to develop on-going adaptive capacity. It also assists in the development of shared understanding and greater cohesion between different types of communities, thereby enhancing the overall and long-term resilience of those communities.

The Indian Ocean Tsunami of December 2004 raised awareness around the globe of the potential devastating impacts of tsunamis. Extreme hazard events, such as tsunamis and storms, as well as many other coastal hazards—episodic and chronic—pose increasing threats to coastal communities throughout the world. The U.S. Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Program, funded by the United States Agency for International Development, worked with partner agencies and organizations throughout the Indian Ocean region to identify essential elements of resilient coastal communities and to develop benchmarks and assessment methods to evaluate the capacity of coastal communities to reduce risk, accelerate recovery to disasters, and adapt to changes resulting from both episodic and chronic hazards. This paper presents the process and results of developing, testing, and application of this coastal community resilience framework and assessment methods in coastal communities and other stakeholders in the region. The resulting framework integrates community development, coastal management, and disaster management is recommended for adoption by local and national governments to mitigate the severity of future potential disasters and lessen the impacts of chronic hazards in this region.

The growing awareness of the impact of natural disasters on human communities has raised awareness of the need for better measurements and models of vulnerability to disasters and for improved management of information that guides the humanitarian response. This paper describes an integrated approach to disaster assessment that will enhance the understanding of vulnerability and provide information for decision making in the post-disaster context. The study is a multidisciplinary approach that brings together the fields of physical science, demography, public health, and informatics. Modeling population vulnerability and risk in natural disasters, in conjunction with post-disaster assessments of surviving populations will enable governments and humanitarian organizations to make more informed decisions in terms of how to locate need and allocate resources in the aftermath of disasters. A case study on a post-earthquake assessment in Peru is presented.

Law enforcement is critical to effective evacuations. The events of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita have demonstrated the complex nature of large-scale population movements from potential impact zones. This research focuses on the support experience of law enforcement officers during the Hurricane Rita evacuation in Texas. A mailed questionnaire was administered to a random sample of officers working in coastal jurisdictions. SPSS 12.0 was used for analysis. The findings suggest that department size is important to the provision of officer support during a mass evacuation. Of particular issue was the lack of support available from other officers and the loss of contact with dispatch in smaller law enforcement agencies. These issues point to problems with communication even when infrastructure damage does not occur. More research is needed and policy and planning efforts need to continue to address communication and support issues for law enforcement officers and other emergency responders.