Impacts of Climate Change on Coastal Erosion and Flood Probability in the US Pacific Northwest

A simple total water level (TWL) model is employed to investigate the relative importance of various climate controls on the potential for an increased probability of coastal erosion and flooding on sandy beaches of the US Pacific Northwest. Model results suggest that if decadal-scale increases in storm intensity (wave height) continue into the future, this process will have a greater impact on increasing the probability of coastal hazards, via the relationship between wave height and wave runup, than even relatively high estimates of relative sea level rise (RSLR) rates over the next century. RSLR appears to be more important to potential hazards than an increase in the frequency of major El Niño events (from approximately one to two events per decade). The combined effect of each of these climate controls operating simultaneously is predicted to increase erosion/flood frequency by as much as an order of magnitude for some beach slopes and dune crest elevations. These results confirm the need to incorporate climate-controlled processes in methodologies designed to assess the risks of enhanced coastal hazards to humans and infrastructure.