An Estimation Method for Potential Maximum Storm Surge Heights Using a New Tropical Cyclone Initialization Scheme and a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Wave Model

In order to evaluate the potential maximum storm surge heights along coastal areas in CO₂-warmed future climate, a new tropical cyclone initialization scheme is developed in this study. Since the technique is not based on empirical and statistical models which have been used historically but the balanced dynamics of the atmospheric potential vorticity inversion, it makes it possible to simulate realistic tropical cyclone structures even in future years for which no observed data currently exist. Using a coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model with the initial conditions which are calculated by small changes in the central position of tropical cyclone, the potential maximum storm surge height is evaluated in the Ise Bay, Japan. The many sensitivity experiments suggest that the subtle difference of typhoon courses largely influence the amount and distribution of storm surge level.