Sea Level Trends, Inundation Analysis, and Exceedance Probability: Results and Applications from Long-Term NOAA Tide Stations

The long-term water level observations obtained from NOAA tide stations are used to estimate rates of relative sea level trends around the nation. Largely due to regional or local vertical land movement, these relative sea level trends can be quite different than the present rate of absolute global sea level rise, thought to presently be between 2.0 to 3.0 mm/yr. The tide station records are being used in conjunction with long-term GPS measurement systems to provide more useful information on global sea level rise, however, the key piece of information required by most coastal users is what is the expected change in inundation relative to the local land, regardless of cause. By looking at present statistics on inundation analyses and exceedance probabilities and then looking at the impacts of various sea level trends on those statistics, information on future inundation can be obtained for coastal zone management and planning.