Journal of Urban Planning and Development

An investigation is reported on bus bunching and its spatiotemporal patterns that considers six bus routes in Kolkata City, West Bengal, India. With historical GPS data as inputs, bunching occurrences are identified using the spatiotemporal–density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (ST–DBSCAN) algorithm. To determine the impact of bunching on various bus stops, k-means++ clustering was used on top of ST–DBSCAN, and subsequently, spatiotemporal bunching patterns were investigated. Some bus stops are consecutively impacted by bunching; however, others are impacted in an isolated manner. To capture the spatiotemporal propagation of bunching, a new indicator termed the propagation ratio is proposed, which could classify the bunching as propagating or isolated. Bunching occurrences are propagating for some bus routes and isolated for others, which justifies the need to prioritize routes displaying propagating nature. Of interest, bunching is identified on high and low-frequency bus routes, which indicates the need to relook at the operational planning of all the bus routes regardless of their frequency. At times, excessive bunching is detected during lean periods of the day, which suggests the necessity of modifying the dispatching headways that are based on passenger demand during these lean periods. The outcomes from this work further indicate that all the bus stops along a bus route are not equally impacted by bunching. The spatiotemporal cluster plots could successfully capture the initial bunching occurrence points and their variation with time, which could provide an opportunity for the operators to apply time-varying remedial measures. The insights developed from this work could be used advantageously by operators and policymakers for mitigating bus bunching and improving the urban bus service.

The speed of urbanization in China has been unprecedented, and its driving force has been given much attention in the field. Previous literature analyzes the driving factors of China's urbanization from various aspects, including the economy, population, transportation, housing, and other market factors. However, this study explored the influence of power factors on urbanization from a new perspective of city leaders. Based on the panel data from 285 Chinese cities from 2006 to 2017, a fixed effects model was used to analyze the influence of city leaders’ power hierarchy and promotion pressure on the speed of land and population urbanization. The main conclusions are as follows: First, the power hierarchy of party secretaries has a significant positive impact on land urbanization speed. Party secretaries with a higher position hierarchy can promote land urbanization speed. Second, the promotion pressure of party secretaries exerts a significant impact on land urbanization speed. An inverted “U” relationship has been observed between the age of party secretaries and the speed of land urbanization. The speed reaches its maximum when party secretaries are approximately 56 years old. Furthermore, party secretaries’ tenure has a positive and significant impact on land urbanization speed. Third, the power hierarchy and promotion pressure of party secretaries have no significant impact on the population's urbanization speed. In addition, this research finds that land finance acts as a mediating factor in the influence of party secretaries’ power hierarchy and promotion pressure on land urbanization speed. The conclusions can provide suggestions for improving official evaluation mechanisms and expanding financing for urban construction to promote the development of new human-centered urbanization in China.

In the past, research on urban spatial structure under complex terrain conditions has mostly remained at the level of analyzing a specific city and a single type of terrain, the limitations of the research scope and perspective making it difficult to fully determine any general laws. In order to effectively grasp the mode of spatial expansion, development law, and evolutionary mechanism, we innovatively chose to combine dynamic and static research methods, utilizing static and dynamic maps as two mutually supportive analysis paths, and taking 71 typical cities in China as samples to provide empirical evidence. Our results indicate that there is a phenomenon of differentiation in the types of preferred spatial structure of cities under different terrains, which is realized through the urban space adapting to the topographic constraints, penetrating into the topography, and crossing the topography to break through barriers of scale. Compared with plains cities, the spatial structure of cities under complex terrain changes from compact to decentralized, the urban form tends toward complex from single, and the development rate is divided into two trends of continuous acceleration and reduced growth rate. The reason for this is that the topographical environment is the fundamental influencing factor, and social factors, such as economy and population, play an inherent driving role. National policies directly determine the flow of land and other factors, which are ultimately reflected in the spatial structure. These insights are beneficial for improving the academic research system in this field, as well as supporting the foresight of planning schemes, the direction of optimization measures, and the decision-making of urban agglomeration development.

Doha, the capital city of Qatar, has experienced remarkable urban growth over the last two decades. This raises concerns regarding the city’s fulfillment of compactness, complexity, and connectivity. This paper considers transit-oriented development (TOD) as a potential tool to attain a sustainable and diverse urban landscape in a situated context. Qualitative research methods, which include observations and mapping, are employed to gain a deeper understanding of the physical aspects of a situated context in the neighborhood of Al-Slata, Doha. Specifically, this paper aims to investigate the implementation of TOD in metro station precincts within Al-Slata based on five design aspects: (1) walkability; (2) balance of ground use; (3) mixed-use spaces; (4) intermodality and transportation hubs; and (5) a public transportation network. The findings include a lack of complexity and connectivity between urban activities and spaces adjacent to the metro station. In addition, these findings demonstrate the potential of metro stations to preserve the cultural heritage and social identity in a rapidly developing city like Doha. The recommendations include a layout design proposal to increase connectivity and complexity within the situated context and suggestions on how transit nodes and metro stations could become active hubs within the city.

Abstract

In recent years, small-area population prediction methods have been widely applied in urban and regional planning. This study aims to empirically compare two small-area population forecasting methods and explains how to choose prediction results through a case study. This study utilizes the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model and the cohort change rate (CCR) method proposed by Inoue to forecast Wuhan’s population. In terms of data requirements and the complexity of the prediction process, GWR necessitates considering more drivers of population change and is more effective for population prediction at the county administrative unit or on smaller scales. The model requires substantial input data and involves integrating statistical and geospatial data. Unlike GWR, the CCR method requires population data for only two statistical years, necessitating a smoothing of population data for each area. Consequently, it is generally unsuitable for predicting populations of small geoadministrative units. With regard to forecasting results, the CCR results suggest that Wuhan’s future population will continue to experience relatively rapid growth. In contrast, the GWR results indicate that Wuhan’s future population will be more stable. Given China’s demographic shifts, urbanization trends, and Wuhan’s recent population changes, this study concludes that GWR produces results more consistent with reality. The value of this study lies in using a case study to provide researchers and planning practitioners with a better understanding of GWR and CCR and how to choose prediction results for planning.

Practical Applications

The study’s findings demonstrate that the cohort change rate (CCR) method proposed by Inoue overestimates the actual population, whereas the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method underestimates it. These population prediction methods may produce different results in other cases due to variations in the situations, as observed in Wuhan, China. In the actual planning project research process, multiple prediction methods are often employed to obtain interval prediction results, the median of which is then used to approximate the actual result. To obtain age-specific population prediction results, only the CCR method may be used for planning projects or research. However, the choice of method may be constrained by data availability, requiring results based on the researcher’s specific circumstances.

Abstract

Urban parks in Vietnam are undergoing expansion plans, yet the actual area is dwindling, attributed to limited ecosystem services and inadequate public engagement. This study addressed the dual challenge of shrinking green spaces and the need for enhanced ecosystem services in urban areas. We aimed to devise strategies to bolster ecosystem service development through a comprehensive survey of park users and an analysis of the impact of green areas on ecosystem service quality. Specifically, we surveyed 400 residents to gauge perceptions, attitudes, and insights regarding park ecosystem services. Additionally, we assessed the importance of urban green spaces through various indicators $(\mathrm{pH},\mathrm{DO},\mathrm{TSS},\mathrm{COD},{\mathrm{N}\text{–}\mathrm{NH}}_4^{+},{\mathrm{N}\text{–}\mathrm{NO}}_2^{-},{\mathrm{N}\text{–}\mathrm{NO}}_3^{-},{\mathrm{P}\text{–}\mathrm{PO}}_4^{3-})$ in surface runoff samples, both with and without vegetation, during five rainfall events. The findings reveal a limited understanding of park ecosystem services among the populace, reflected in their minimal willingness to pay for such services. Moreover, the study uncovers significant differences in the impacts of parks on sustainable urban drainage, as evidenced by contrasting qualities of rainwater samples processed through green areas versus typical stormwater runoff. These results underscore the need for targeted interventions to raise awareness and improve ecosystem services in urban parks, which is pivotal for sustainable urban development. This case study from Vietnam contributes both theoretically and practically by highlighting the crucial role of public awareness and engagement in enhancing ecosystem services in urban landscapes.

Practical Applications

Our study illuminates the crucial role of nature-based solutions in enhancing ecosystem services within urban environments, as exemplified by Gia Dinh and Tao Dan Parks in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. This research is particularly valuable for urban developers, park management, and city planners because it underscores the potential of urban parks to contribute significantly to environmental sustainability and public well-being. We found that the public’s awareness and valuation of the parks’ ecosystem services are key to their willingness to support and fund park improvements. Therefore, educational programs aimed at increasing understanding of the benefits provided by these green spaces could lead to greater community involvement and investment in their maintenance and development. For policymakers, our findings suggest that investing in the ecological aspects of urban parks can pay off in terms of both enhanced environmental quality and increased public usage and enjoyment. Additionally, the implementation of sustainable drainage systems within these parks not only mitigates urban flooding but also improves the quality of urban runoff, presenting a compelling case for integrating similar nature-based solutions in urban planning initiatives. By presenting clear, real-world examples from Gia Dinh and Tao Dan Parks, our study provides a framework for other cities looking to link ecosystem services with urban development. The insights gained here can guide the transformation of urban green spaces into multifunctional areas that support biodiversity, provide recreational opportunities, and serve as cornerstones for sustainable city living.

In metropolitan areas, rising house prices make it more difficult for low- and middle-income people to access affordable housing. However, the availability of affordable rental housing in metropolitan areas serves the survival and social sustainability of all social groups in urban areas. Despite the critical importance of rental housing affordability at the metropolitan level, studies on this issue, especially spatial studies, are limited. This article spatially analyzes housing affordability for low- and middle-income households in Istanbul, a city experiencing a neoliberal housing policy. The methodology of the study is based on an analysis of rental housing affordability in the metropolitan area of Istanbul by taking into account the polycentric structure of Istanbul, the central grading (center, subcenters, and periphery), and regular and irregular housing subregions. The findings of the article demonstrate that low- and middle-income households in Istanbul have no access to affordable rental housing in the city center and limited access to the subcenters. Furthermore, low- and middle-income households have access mainly to irregular housing areas within the city. The findings imply that without social policies, they will be excluded from central or regular housing areas. This points to the critical role of social policies in neoliberal housing markets.

Transit as an alternative means of travel allows travelers to access a wide range of activities and services. In addition to focusing on how many job opportunities and other basic urban services such as parks and healthcare can be accessed by transit, more attention should be paid to how many transit services can be obtained and how easy it is to access them. It should be noted that accessibility by transit and accessibility to transit are not the same thing, and most existing studies tend to focus on the former while ignoring the measurement of the latter. However, accessibility to transit is an important concept that can provide a framework for understanding and explaining the availability of transit services. In the literature, transit is more often used as a tool for accessing activities and opportunities to analyze the basic services such as healthcare resources and job opportunities that can be accessed, which not only ignores the transit service provided by the means of transit as a supplying facility, but also ignores the diversity of facilities in the integrated public transportation system. With this in mind, this paper introduces the entropy index into the adjusted Gaussian two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA) method to measure accessibility to transit to capture how the overall accessibility changes when considering different transit facilities. From the spatial distribution of accessibility, the areas with high accessibility score are distributed in the six core administrative districts of Beijing, accounting for 99.3% of the grids with high accessibility scores. When considering facility diversity, 46.7% of the grids within the core administrative districts experience an increase in their accessibility rank, and there is an increase in the number of grids with high accessibility. The research results indicate that considering facility diversity enhances the accessibility level of grids, elucidates the diversity differences in each area, and provides valuable information for the location selection of transit facilities and urban planning. The applicability of the proposed method to Beijing illustrates that it can provide valuable insights for the measurement of accessibility, which can help planners obtain more effective evaluation results.