Risk Assessment of Epidemic Prevention Materials Delivery Based on Bayes-OWA

This study aims to identify the risk factors in delivering epidemic prevention materials in the post-epidemic era and propose a method to estimate the risk probability and consequence. The risk assessment system with different characteristics of epidemic prevention materials was identified, and the Bayes-OWA method was applied to identify the key risk factors. Bayesian network (Bayes) is applied to characterize the causal hierarchical relationship between risk factors. Based on posterior probability and conditional probability analysis, the Ordered Weighted Average operator (OWA) is introduced to describe and rank the multiple attributes of risk factors. The model was carried out by ShuYu Civilian Pharmacy Corp. Ltd. The results showed that the risk of disinfection and cleaning in the delivery process is the key factor affecting the delivery risk. It provides a new idea for delivery risk management in the post-epidemic era and is significant to logistics safety management during the epidemic.