Estimation and Prediction of Urban Transportation Carbon Emissions of Xi’an, China

Estimating transportation carbon emissions is a prerequisite for formulating low-carbon transportation development measures. First, this study collects data on commercial and private vehicles’ ownership, mileage, and energy consumption. Then, the carbon emissions of each transportation mode were calculated, and the carbon emissions under different scenarios in the future were predicted. The results show that private vehicles of traditional fuel type emitted more than 11.5 million tons in 2021, accounting for 74% of transportation carbon emissions. Diesel trucks are the primary carbon emissions source among commercial vehicles. In addition, the prediction results indicate that carbon emissions would peak between 2025 and 2030 if relevant emissions reduction measures were adopted. Furthermore, this paper identifies the contribution of significant energy conservation and emissions reduction measures and ends with carbon reduction suggestions from a time perspective.