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Dec 14, 2021
Factors Influencing Traffic Safety and an Accident Prediction Model of Expressway Interchange Exits
Authors: Zhezhao Zhang [email protected], Kui Chen [email protected], Yifei Zhao [email protected], Cheng Chang [email protected], and Yan Zhao [email protected]Author Affiliations
Publication: CICTP 2021
ABSTRACT
We systematically studied the relevant factors influencing traffic safety in the exit area of interchange by investigating and collecting relevant road traffic conditions and traffic accident data in the exit area of the existing expressway interchanges. The control variables with significant interaction effects were eliminated and merged using multivariate variance analysis of the main influencing factors. We established a multivariable linear regression traffic accident prediction model for interchange exit area. The accident prediction model was validated by the traffic accident level of 14 interchange exit areas within the scope of the Hang Xinjing Expressway (G60N). The results show that the relative error between the predicted and actual values of traffic accidents in the interchange exit area is small. The traffic accident prediction model is accurate and practical, which can provide a theoretical reference and technical support for the prediction, evaluation and analysis of the accident variation in the exit area of interchanges.
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Published online: Dec 14, 2021
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1School of Highway, Chang’an Univ., Xi’an, Shaanxi, China. Email: [email protected]
2Zhejiang Communications Investment Group Co., Ltd., Quzhou, Zhejiang, China. Email: [email protected]
3School of Highway, Chang’an Univ., Xi’an, Shaanxi, China. Email: [email protected]
4School of Highway, Chang’an Univ., Xi’an, Shaanxi, China. Email: [email protected]
5School of Highway, Chang’an Univ., Xi’an, Shaanxi, China. Email: [email protected]
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Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.