Estimation of Dynamic Origin-Destination Matrix for an Expressway Network

This paper presents a dynamic Origin-Destination estimation model for expressway networks. Based on the assumption of travel time normal distribution, the paper extends the dynamic OD estimation model proposed by K. Ashok. The proposed model to estimate dynamic OD matrix doesn't depend on a historic OD matrix. The research employs the Unscented Kalman Filter. The proposed model is evaluated with simulation tests. Numerical analysis with respect to the sensitivity of both input measurement errors and the selection of initial parameters on the estimation results indicate that the proposed model can provide reasonably and stable estimates for real-world applications.