Application of MNL Model in Forecasting Mode Share in Transportation Corridor

Based on utility theory and the characteristics of different transportation modes in corridor, rules are given for choosing explanation variables when mode share in corridor is forecast using MNL model. It is analyzed in this paper the relationship of factors affecting travelers' choice, such as travel time, safety, comfort, convenience and cost, as well as the adaptability of these factors used as explanation variables, then travel time and relative cost (the ratio of fare to income) are chosen to forecast mode share. According to traveler survey, MNL model is used to predict the influence of the Xi'an-Lanzhou Dedicated Passenger Line (DPL) on corridor's mode share. By analyzing the change of mode share under different velocities and fares, results show that MNL model has a guiding function in DPL operating strategy.