Chapter
Apr 26, 2012
Prediction of Traffic Flow Based on Gray Theory and BP Neural Network
Authors: Zebin Zhao [email protected], Shi An, and Jian WangAuthor Affiliations
Publication: International Conference on Transportation Engineering 2007
Abstract
Accurate short-period traffic flow forecast plays an important role in reasonable traffic induction and controlling, reducing traffic congestion. This paper takes gray model as foundation, making use of the advantage of simple algorithm, using a small amount of data modeling of gray model, and BP neural network's good performance on forecast of nonlinear systems, correcting gray forecast model via BP neural network. We finally build a synthesis model. In view of such shortcomings of BP neural network which is easy to fall into local minimum while calculating, and improve the algorithm combining momentum method and adoptive learning rate method. The results show that synthesis model can exert the advantage and weaken the shortcoming of each single model.
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© 2007 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published online: Apr 26, 2012
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ASCE Technical Topics:
- Algorithms
- Artificial intelligence and machine learning
- Computer programming
- Computing in civil engineering
- Engineering fundamentals
- Forecasting
- Foundations
- Geotechnical engineering
- Infrastructure
- Mathematics
- Neural networks
- Nonlinear response
- Statistics
- Structural behavior
- Structural engineering
- Traffic congestion
- Traffic engineering
- Traffic flow
- Traffic management
- Transportation engineering
- Transportation management
- Transportation networks
Authors
Affiliations
School of Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin P.R. China, 150001. E-mail: [email protected]
Shi An
School of Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin P.R. China, 150001
Jian Wang
School of Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin P.R. China, 150001
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Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.