A Method of Forecasting Air Pollution Induced by Vehicle Exhaust with Traffic Simulation Technology

Management and control of vehicle exhaust is extremely urgent due to the growth trend of vehicle population. Prediction of vehicular exhausts dispersion is one of the indispensability links of atmospheric environment treatment. However, the prediction of air pollution induced by vehicle exhaust needs detailed data of traffic flow forecasting which is difficult to obtain. In order to simulate and forecast the distribution of vehicle exhaust more exactly as traffic demand changes, this paper presents a method that transforms future traffic demand into traffic flow in PARAMICS, and uses the independently developed UTESAS (Urban Traffic Environment Simulation and Assessment System) to forecast the concentration distribution of vehicular exhausts. There are three approaches. Firstly, the road network of simulation is set up for PARAMICS. Secondly, the project of traffic simulation is performed to predict the traffic flow. Thirdly, traffic flow data is used as input of UTESAS to simulate the dispersion, and then the spatial distribution of forecasted vehicle exhaust is shown in GIS module. Finally, this paper gives a case of application. The method has been used to simulate and predict the hourly variety of concentration of carbon monoxide of the road network near Tianhe Sports Center in Guangzhou during evening rush hour in workdays of June 2007. This simulation has been carried out under the typical meteorological condition of evening climax of Guangzhou.