Quantitative Analysis Model of Non-Accident Loss for Tropical Cyclone Avoidance Routing

When a ship takes a route of avoiding TC, it will change the original sailing course temporarily, and make extra cost caused by longer sailing time and more fuel oil consumption. Besides, for the same ship, the costs will be differed according to the avoiding TC routes. In order to give a quantitative evaluation and control on the cost of ship's avoiding TC routes, and provide scientific basis for the decision making of optimum TC avoidance routing, this paper present the concept and a model of quantitative analysis of non-accident loss of ship's avoiding TC route. Based on these, the method of determining the loss and loss matrix of ship's avoiding TC route has been put forward. And the actual process to evaluate the loss and loss matrix has been showed in an example of a bulkcarrier. The result shows that the model and method provided in this paper can give important quantitative basis for the cost analysis and control in the process of decision making of optimum TC avoidance routing.