Congress on Technical Advancement 2017: Infrastructure Resilience and Energy

This paper presents a new methodology for the real-time operation of water distribution systems under critical conditions of limited electrical energy due to emergencies such as extreme drought conditions, electric grid failure, and other severe conditions related to natural conditions. The basic objective of optimizing the operations of a water distribution system under limited availability of energy is to attempt to satisfy the required levels of demand at various locations while meeting pressure requirements of the system and maintaining an optimal pump schedule. The approach adopted here is to interface an optimization procedure (genetic algorithm) with a simulator (EPANET) in the framework of an optimal control problem to determine the real-time optimal operation of a water distribution system under limited electrical input. The genetic algorithm (GA) searches over pump operation in combination with maximizing the demands that can be satisfied with limited energy input. The interfacing of the simulator and the genetic algorithm has been accomplished within the framework of MATLAB.

The primary objective of this paper is to study the effects of natural and induced seismic hazards on Texas bridges. Predicted structural damage forms the primary performance metric for this study. The motivation for this research stems from the significant increase in the number of earthquakes greater than magnitude 3.0 in Texas over the past five years. Texas is historically known as a non-seismic region; therefore, this significant increase in seismicity raises concerns over the safety of infrastructure designed with little to no consideration of seismic demands. The bridge population is characterized by different classes, and for each class, computationally efficient nonlinear models are implemented for simulating damage intensity in non-seismically detailed bridge components. The damage level is evaluated based on deformations of bridge components, namely bridge bearings in this paper, and fragility functions representing the probability of exceeding each damage state for various bridge classes are generated. The results show that although it is not likely to have full damage of bearing components after the earthquake, it is more likely to have slight and moderate. This information will be used to inform post-earthquake inspection plans and identify the most vulnerable bridge types in terms of bearing fragility.

The New York State Department of Transportation maintains a database of over 428 bridges that have collapsed in the United States between 1992 and 2014. These collapsed bridges are associated with inspection data from the National Bridge Inventory dated just prior to collapse. Out of 428 bridges in the compiled-collapse database, 237 (55.4%) have collapsed due to a hydraulic-induced failure. A test of independence between the scour critical rating and hydraulic failure indicates that the two variables are associated. Almost half of the bridges (46.4%) that collapsed due to a hydraulic failure are inspected and rated scour stable, which indicates a discrepancy between the scour critical rating and hydraulic collapse. Evidence of accelerated deterioration is found in conjunction with substructure condition ratings. Underwater inspection of in-service bridges show decreased substructure condition ratings compared to decks and superstructures. The evaluation of the bridge components for hydraulic collapse (median rating of ‘5’) and the in-service population (median rating of ‘7’) yield a lower rating for the substructure. The presence of minor scour at the substructure is a greater hazard than currently described by the inspection system.

The developed world is sustained by complex infrastructures that produce and provide the resources used in modern societies. These rapidly growing infrastructures are becoming increasingly interconnected, complex, and deeply embedded in our society, which creates significant vulnerabilities. Beyond our ability to understand or protect against it, this spiraling complexity poses the catastrophic risk of rapid, cascading collapse that could have dramatic and lasting impacts on a local or even regional economy. This paper outlines the vulnerabilities and consequences of a “Black Sky” event, reports findings from “Grey Sky” events, and identifies various vulnerabilities associated with society’s increasingly interconnected infrastructure and recommends a systems engineering approach that could be used to build resilience in the water sector. A number of hazards can disrupt these interdependent infrastructures, potentially resulting in significant loss of: lives, societal integrity and our identity as a nation. For example, a widespread, long-duration electric power outage could cascade across lifeline infrastructures, severely impacting our ability to either maintain basic services or restore them when multiple interdependent infrastructures are disrupted. Resilience against Black Sky hazards requires carefully planned operational requirements, sound investment, and specialized cross-sector coordination and collaboration.

Earthquake damage to water supply systems profoundly affects society, potentially costing the economy tens of billions of dollars. Water agencies for 22% of the U.S. population face high seismic risks. Computer models can help operators manage that risk. In recent research, the University of Colorado (CU) developed a stochastic model of water-supply pipeline damage and restoration. It offers some new capabilities: time-varying repair resources, multiple earthquake perils, lifeline interaction, avoiding hydraulic analysis, and no black-box software. CU exercised the model for the East Bay Municipal Utility District (EBMUD) and the San Jose Water Company, considering a hypothetical large Hayward Fault earthquake. EBMUD staff peer reviewed the methodology and results and find them credible and consistent with past earthquakes. EBMUD is using the results as part of its resilience program. Possible uses include prioritizing additional hardening or redundancy, identifying repair priorities, estimating resource needs, and informing earthquake exercises.

Sustained improvements and investment in the San Francisco Bay Area’s building portfolio are gradually increasing the prominence of lifeline system performance in achieving household and business functionality following a future earthquake. Most modern urban social and economic systems require the function of numerous lifeline systems and the failure of a single lifeline can displace households or keep businesses closed. In the San Francisco Bay Area, a local and regional collaborative convening platform is creating a space for lifeline operators to develop a common operating picture with cities to develop balanced resilience actions that can be taken before and after acute shocks.

The Oregon Resilience Plan (ORP) was developed in 2013 by the State of Oregon to reduce risk and improve recovery during and following a magnitude (M) 9.0 earthquake and tsunami. The Portland Water Bureau (PWB) hired InfraTerra, Inc. to help them prepare a water system seismic study (WSSS) of the PWB water system. PWB and InfraTerra determined the seismic performance of PWB’s water system in an M 9.0 earthquake and developed mitigation actions to meet the target states of recovery (TSoR) provided in the ORP. The study findings highlighted the significant interdependence of the water system and other lifeline systems and the critical need to invest in mitigation projects and water system improvements.

Every year, slope failures result in millions of dollars’ worth of damages to infrastructure. Damage to roads, sewers, pipelines, bridges, and buildings can be severe—and slope failures can also endanger human life and adversely impact the environment. With the goal of addressing this problem more proactively, Barr Engineering Co. (Barr) conducted a research project to develop maps showing which of Minnesota’s many roadside slopes are most susceptible to failure. Based on a review of slope-failure research from around the world, and drawing upon established slope-failure theory, a GIS-based model was created to predict the likelihood of slope failure based on what appear to be the most critical factors: soil characteristics, topography, and rainfall. Data from existing and historical Minnesota slope failures was used to calibrate and validate the model. The maps generated by the model identify at-risk slopes and assign them one of five levels of very low, low, medium, high, and very high susceptibility to failure.

Business continuity planning is critically important for enhancing a utility’s disaster resilience. However, a quick survey conducted by ASCE/Infrastructure Resilience Division (IRD) indicated that utilities typically do not have a business continuity plan, despite existence of several business continuity planning guidelines. In collaboration with ASCE/IRD, the City of Portland Water Bureau has decided to develop a business continuity plan, utilizing existing business continuity planning guidelines and expanding on the bureau’s Continuity of Operations Plan. This case study will be used to identify benefits, barriers, and lessons learned. By publishing this case study, it is hoped that other utilities will be inspired to follow and further transform themselves into resilient organizations.

The railway network plays a major role in the U.S. economy by providing an efficient mode of import, export and freight transfer. Although damage to railway infrastructure during extreme events such as earthquakes can result in significant economic impacts, few studies have addressed natural hazard risk and resilience modelling of railway networks and their constituent components. Resilience modeling of railway networks requires an understanding of potential damage and restoration of functionality following hazard events. This study presents a web-based expert opinion survey and probabilistic modeling framework to inform traffic restrictions and closure decisions along with expected traffic downtimes for individual railway bridges. The preliminary limited responses are used to illustrate the use of decision trees to elicit the logical relationship between damage, closure decisions and closure times. These results inform a network level simulation for the railway network of Shelby County, Tennessee, to show the temporal evolution of the probability of disconnection between important origin and destination routes for given earthquake scenarios.

Risk analysis has been used in non-permafrost regions as a decision-making tool to justify expenditures; however, the application of these techniques to permafrost infrastructure is limited. Risk for a danger (adverse event which causes infrastructure damage) is the product of hazard and consequence. The probability and costs of a danger’s occurrence is a hazard and the consequence, respectively. A computer program, created in the form of a Microsoft Excel macro and associated input spreadsheets, will calculate the risk for a section of permafrost-supported linear infrastructure, using statistical methods applied to limit state design criteria to determine hazards for common dangers, estimated direct costs for the repair of a hazard’s occurrence, and scaling factors to account for the indirect costs of damage to the infrastructure’s users and connected communities. Hazard calculations are based on geotechnical index property and climate variation using Monte Carlo simulation and first order second moment (FOSM) methods. Included within the program will be a climate change fragility analysis and a summation of the overall risk for the roadway section analyzed. Repeated analyses along the infrastructure can provide a section-by-section risk profile of the infrastructure and how this risk may change due to a warming climate. Results may be used as a decision-making tool for cost/benefit analyses to justify the use of adaptation methods, prioritize repair or reconstruction locations and monies, and plan for future conditions.

Extreme weather events and acts of terrorism have highlighted the need for resilient cities and infrastructure systems. The academic community is beginning to respond by offering specific course work to better prepare engineers for this broad and rapidly evolving topic. One challenge facing academic institutions is formulating the course content. Here at the University of Iowa, I was assigned this task based on my 33 years of engineering practice that included directing the response to Iowa City’s four largest floods of record, a tornado, a derecho, an enormous landfill fire, numerous severe winter storms, as well as many other smaller scale catastrophes. My experience has also been shaped by serving on the Iowa Department of Homeland Security’s First Responders Advisory Committee. This paper will identity the core competencies of resilience that are necessary for civil engineers in today’s world. These competencies not only include better strategies for design, but also operational skills for disaster planning, response, and recovery.

This paper reports on large-scale testing results to characterize the performance of hazard-resilient pipelines under large ground deformation caused by natural hazards, such as earthquake-induced lateral spreading and landslides, as well as displacements associated with flooding-induced scour and subsidence. A series of experiments were performed at the Cornell University Geotechnical Lifelines Testing Laboratory to evaluate the axial force/displacement performance of hazard resilient ductile iron pipelines buried in sand typical of utility installations in the field. Such pipelines can accommodate axial movement through slip and rotation of the joints. Soil-pipeline interaction under direct axial pull was investigated to quantify how the enlarged hazard resilient joints affect pullout resistance. The testing results provide detailed data with which to characterize pipeline response to the effects of soil movement parallel to the longitudinal axis of the pipe, thus improving analytical modeling capabilities and contributing to the development of design guidelines.

This paper is the first attempt to document the changes and evaluation of the changes to the telecommunication network in Tohoku with respect to improvement and preparedness of future earthquake and tsunami disasters. The information provided in this paper is based on data collected three years after the earthquake and tsunami. A summary of selected locations of significant damage to telecommunication network nodes will be presented. The recovery and rebuilt of these sites will be detailed based on the information collected and followed by evaluation of their impact to resilience with respect to future extreme events. The process and difficulty of collecting recovery and rebuilding information and the primary objective(s) of the service provider during the post disaster environment will also be discussed. This may help to develop guidelines for other lifelines to execute longitudinal study.

Due to the public exposure of transportation facilities, protection of major transportation structural members against terrorist attacks is considered a top priority by government agencies. Most of old urban transportation structures in the United States were made from custom steel shapes, which were built up from angles and flat plates using rivets. The built-up steel shapes resemble typical modern wide flange shapes. Since current approaches to designing structures subjected to blast loading have been developed mostly for military facilities, a significant stand-off distance is assumed. However, such a distance cannot nearly be maintained for urban transportation facilities, due to congested nature of an urban environment. The purpose of this study is to analyze aging transportation structures subjected to close-in detonations. Nonlinear explicit finite element analyses are performed for built-up steel shapes as well as standard wide flange shapes, fully coupled in real-time with blast effects based on computational fluid dynamics, using Ansys/Autodyn software. Numerous computer models are built to cover various sizes and blast conditions. Based on the blast analysis results, the ultimate objective is to develop a novel simplified approach or chart that can be used for the analysis and protection of the transportation structures. Five parameters of Johnson and Cook material model are adjusted for structural steel, addressing strain rate and temperature change effects during detonations. The results are compared to the behavior of standard wide flange shapes subjected to similar conditions.

An exponential growth in natural hazards has led to a loss of building functionality and cascading impacts on communities. As stakeholders have a significant impact on the design of office buildings, this paper presents a framework for assessing stakeholder preferences with respect to the decision metrics of life-cycle cost, environmental impact, and loss of resilience considering the occurrence of natural hazard events. A unitless preference function is determined that can be used in the early design of building soil, structure, foundation, and envelope systems with respect to earthquake, tsunami, and hurricane hazards. This preference function is designed in a way to account for a range of building performances from the best-performing to the worst-performing building configuration with respect to natural hazards in addition to multiple decision makers, and building soil, structure, foundation and envelope subsystems and systems.

Over the past 30 years people have become more cognizant of our dependency upon non-renewable energy sources and its effect on issues like global warming, the environment, health, jobs, the economy, national security, etc. These concerns are having a dramatic impact on our national politics and international relations which in turn puts more pressure on the need for solutions. They are having a greater cyclical affect on all our lives with each passing day as evidenced by the 9/11 tragedy and its aftermath. This paper is designed to give the reader a synopsis of our national energy consumption as it relates to how we can implement solutions using technologies and infrastructure already available. These solutions will demonstrate how we can maintain/improve our current lifestyles, reduce pollution by at least 60%, reduce our dependency on foreign fossil fuels, use our existing utility distribution systems more efficiently, reduce energy costs, provide thousands of new good paying jobs, implement a robust economy, and have a positive effect on our national security.