Permafrost-Supported Linear Infrastructure Risk Analysis Software: Design and Goals

Risk analysis has been used in non-permafrost regions as a decision-making tool to justify expenditures; however, the application of these techniques to permafrost infrastructure is limited. Risk for a danger (adverse event which causes infrastructure damage) is the product of hazard and consequence. The probability and costs of a danger’s occurrence is a hazard and the consequence, respectively. A computer program, created in the form of a Microsoft Excel macro and associated input spreadsheets, will calculate the risk for a section of permafrost-supported linear infrastructure, using statistical methods applied to limit state design criteria to determine hazards for common dangers, estimated direct costs for the repair of a hazard’s occurrence, and scaling factors to account for the indirect costs of damage to the infrastructure’s users and connected communities. Hazard calculations are based on geotechnical index property and climate variation using Monte Carlo simulation and first order second moment (FOSM) methods. Included within the program will be a climate change fragility analysis and a summation of the overall risk for the roadway section analyzed. Repeated analyses along the infrastructure can provide a section-by-section risk profile of the infrastructure and how this risk may change due to a warming climate. Results may be used as a decision-making tool for cost/benefit analyses to justify the use of adaptation methods, prioritize repair or reconstruction locations and monies, and plan for future conditions.