Evaluating the Relationship between Urban Population Growth and Land Expansion from a Policymaking Perspective: Ningbo, China
Publication: Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 146, Issue 4
Abstract
Land expansion and population growth are the most important factors for urban development in the rapid urbanization stage. Intensive land use is a key goal of urban sustainable development. Therefore, to promote intensive land use, local governments should take the scientific evaluation of the relationship between urban land and population as the basis and make policies cautiously. Thus, it is vital to adopt evaluation methods that are sensitive to intensive land use. However, this topic has received insufficient attention in the literature. Addressing this gap, this study (1) proposes a modified method to evaluate the relationship between land expansion and population growth, (2) compares the results of three evaluation methods, and (3) compares the relationship between evaluation results and urban construction land area per capita (UCAP) using UCAP as an indicator of intensive land use. Our findings indicate that existing evaluation methods do not adequately reflect the state and trend of intensive land use and that our modified model significantly improves the sensitivity to intensive land use. Additionally, this paper provides policy suggestions based on a quantitative evaluation of the relationship between urban land expansion and urban population growth. These conclusions provide a basis for formulating planning strategies to promote the intensive use of land in cities in the stage of rapid development.
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Conclusions
In this study, we evaluated the relationship between population growth and land expansion in Ningbo in the last three decades by using the existing DI and CI and creating the TCI. In addition, we provided suggestions for future policy based on the evaluation results. Our findings reveal that the TCI evaluation results are more sensitive to the ideal UCAP value and reflect the state of intensive land use better than the CI results. Furthermore, we found the DI had no correlation with UCAP. The TCI primarily indicated the state of intensive land use of the target year, while the CI indicated that either land expansion or population growth was dominant during the increase in urban population and land. Both the CI and the TCI are suited for application in developing countries, where urban populations and land are increasing significantly. Moreover, these two evaluations methods have different implications for future policymaking. Therefore, it is necessary to combine these methods to evaluate the relationship between population growth and land expansion. Scientific evaluations together with the development process and its conditions could serve as the foundation of future urban planning and policymaking.
Data Availability Statement
Some of all data, models, or code generated or used during the study are proprietary or confidential in nature and may only be provided with restrictions. The land use data in the period 2003–2015, applied with restrictions from Ningbo Bureau of Natural Resources and Planning, are not publicly available. Other data used in this study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
This research was funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51708303), Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. LQ16E080002 and LY20E080007), and sponsored by the K. C. Wong Magna Fund of Ningbo University.
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Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 146 • Issue 4 • December 2020
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© 2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Feb 12, 2020
Accepted: Jul 17, 2020
Published online: Sep 28, 2020
Published in print: Dec 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Feb 28, 2021
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