Induced Traffic in China: Elasticity Models with Panel Data
Publication: Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 141, Issue 4
Abstract
The induced traffic model is an essential component of travel demand analysis, which has been primarily researched with elasticity models in the United States and U.K. This paper aims to find the most suitable elasticity model based on the set of panel data regarding annual observations of 30 cities and provinces across China (except Chongqing city) for the years 1990 to 2010. To derive the ideal elasticity model, several basic elasticity models are included; among them are the elasticity-based model, distributed lag model, growth model, and fixed-effect model. Advanced elasticity models, such as the three stages of least squares (3SLS) are also discussed. According to relative researches and data collection, any increase of passenger kilometers of transport (PKT) with the growth of lane kilometers is considered induced traffic and is routinely used as such in this paper. Lane kilometers in China are found to have a statistically significant relationship with PKT measurements of approximately 0.026–0.274 in the short term and 0.367–0.773 in the long term. Population and gross regional product (GRP) numbers are also considered in basic elasticity models. Based on the detailed analysis of empirical results, the 3SLS is judged as the best suitable model for China. It can reflect the time effect, consider endogenous variables (including congestion and vehicle stock), and eliminate the simultaneity bias.
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Acknowledgments
This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 50978046). All possible errors in the paper are only with the authors who are solely responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the data presented here.
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Published In
Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 141 • Issue 4 • December 2015
Copyright
© 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Nov 8, 2013
Accepted: Oct 20, 2014
Published online: Nov 19, 2014
Discussion open until: Apr 19, 2015
Published in print: Dec 1, 2015
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