LandSys II: Agent-Based Land Use–Forecast Model with Artificial Neural Networks and Multiagent Model
Publication: Journal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume 141, Issue 4
Abstract
This paper extends the previous LandSys I to introduce artificial neural networks (ANNs) into the framework of cellular automata (CA), multiagents, and geographic information system (GIS) to forecast land-use change at the grid cell level (). In the model, the temporal and spatial interactions of land-use change are described by CA where transition rules are defined by ANNs to reduce the tedious work of parameter calibration in LandSys I. Compared with LandSys I, an improved multiagent model in LandSys II captures both zoning policies and human decision-making behaviors. The effect of multiple human decision-making behaviors (e.g., governments, households, developers) on land-use change has been quantified. Based on the historical GIS data for Orange County, Florida, the model has a higher predictive ability (87.7%, compared to 85.7% in LandSys I) for land-use change from Year 1990 to 2000. It is also found that either increasing hidden layers in ANNs or the use of multiagent models improves prediction accuracy. A comparison between LandSys I and II indicates that both models are viable; however, LandSys II is freely transferable and is more suitable for land-use forecasting, whereas LandSys I is more appropriate for evaluating the interconnections between land use and its affecting variables.
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Acknowledgments
This research was supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant HUST-2013TS056), the Key Lab of Ocean Engineering of Shanghai Jiao Tong University (Grant JKZD010059), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 51408246 and 51178200), and the U.S. National Science Foundation (Grant OCE-1325227). Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsors.
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© 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Dec 2, 2013
Accepted: Sep 3, 2014
Published online: Nov 17, 2014
Discussion open until: Apr 17, 2015
Published in print: Dec 1, 2015
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