Long-Term Water-Level Forecasting and Real-Time Correction Models in the Tidal Reach of the Yangtze River
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 18, Issue 11
Abstract
In this research, considering the importance and complexity of the water-level forecast in tidal reach, a case study was done in the tidal reach of the Yangtze River. Through the analysis of the characteristics of water-level variations, tidal harmonic analysis was introduced into tidal reach, which was commonly applied in oceanic water-level forecast. An automatic partial tide selection and optimization pattern was used to calibrate harmonic constants, long-term water-level forecast models were developed for Yanglin, Xuliujing, Tianshenggang, and Jiangyin stage stations, and then the long-term forecast models were used to hindcast historical water-level events at the aforementioned stations. Most of the results were highly accurate, but there were also some occasional significant errors, which could be attributed to the effects of upstream runoff and downstream storm surge. Based on these findings, response functions of water-level forecast error to the variation of upstream runoff and the variation of storm surge were developed, which were used in the real-time correction of the simulation results obtained from the long-term forecast model. The forecast accuracy was evidently improved. These models have already been used in water-level forecast in the tidal reach of the Yangtze River for the construction of two large bridges, and they also have the potential to contribute to water-level forecast in similar tidal reaches of other rivers.
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Acknowledgments
This research was financially supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2009B06314), and the National Key Technology Research and Development Program of China during the 11th Five-Year Plan Period (2006BAG04B06). The authors would like to thank the reviewers for their comments permitting improvement of the manuscript.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 18 • Issue 11 • November 2013
Pages: 1437 - 1442
Copyright
© 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jun 6, 2010
Accepted: Sep 26, 2011
Published online: Sep 28, 2011
Discussion open until: Feb 28, 2012
Published in print: Nov 1, 2013
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