A Hydroclimatic Forecast System to Support Decision-Making and Improve Water Security in an Agricultural Frontier of the Brazilian Cerrado
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 150, Issue 3
Abstract
Water stress and conflict can emerge in regions with high water demand, making effective water resource management crucial for regional water security. This case study presents a comprehensive analysis of the hydroclimate behavior in Western Bahia, Brazil, and describes the development, evaluation, and operationalization of a hydroclimatic forecast system that forecasts minimum annual discharges, water stress levels, and rainy season onset, aiming to support decision-making, improve the regional governance of water resources, and improve water security. Western Bahia has experienced water stress in recent years, leading to a reduction in the amount of water in highly stressed regions like the Grande basin. The water scarcity issue may extend to other basins, as evidenced by lower streamflow values observed in the Corrente basin. To address this challenge, hydroclimatic forecasts were developed. The minimum discharge forecasts delivered a relative mean absolute error of 16.5%–27.8% on average for the study region. When combined with water stress forecasts, both provided valuable information for decision-making. Our rainy season onset forecasts had a mean absolute error of 15–20 days for two months’ lead time and captured the region’s west–east gradient of rainy season behavior. These combined hydroclimatic forecasts have the potential to enhance water security and support decision-making in Western Bahia.
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Data Availability Statement
All data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
This research was funded by CNPq (National Council for Scientific Development), Grant 441.210/2017-1.
Author contributions: Luiz Felipe Sant’Anna Commar: conceptualization, data curation, formal analysis, investigation, methodology, software, validation, visualization, writing–original draft, and writing–review and editing. Flávia Barros Vitorino: conceptualization, data curation, formal analysis, investigation, methodology, software, validation, and visualization. Marina Castro: data curation, investigation, and validation. Raphael Pousa: software and writing–review and editing. Marcos Heil Costa: conceptualization, funding acquisition, methodology, project administration, and writing–review and editing.
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Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 150 • Issue 3 • March 2024
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© 2023 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: May 22, 2023
Accepted: Oct 17, 2023
Published online: Dec 26, 2023
Published in print: Mar 1, 2024
Discussion open until: May 26, 2024
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Business management
- Climates
- Decision making
- Engineering fundamentals
- Environmental engineering
- Forecasting
- Hydrologic engineering
- Infrastructure
- Mathematics
- Practice and Profession
- Seasonal variations
- Statistics
- Urban and regional development
- Water and water resources
- Water demand
- Water discharge
- Water management
- Water policy
- Water resources
- Water supply
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