Assessment through Machine Learning of Groundwater Vulnerability after Seismic Damage to Fuel Pipeline
Publication: Journal of Pipeline Systems Engineering and Practice
Volume 15, Issue 3
Abstract
This study assessed the vulnerability of groundwater resources to the failure of the urban fuel distribution network under an earthquake. A case study of the Tehran, Iran, gas distribution network and the Tehran–Karaj Plain aquifer was conducted. To assess the seismic vulnerability of buried fuel pipelines in Tehran based on the fuel distribution network components, three possible earthquake scenarios were studied. To assess damage to the pipeline, a comprehensive model was developed using machine learning (ML). This model can assess and predict damage to a fuel pipeline and its type (i.e., leakage or full breakage). Moreover, aquifer contamination was assessed using the DRASTIC model. It was found that the ML-based pipeline seismic vulnerability assessment model had good performance in predicting seismic damage to the fuel distribution network, with a RMS error (RMSE) and a correlation coefficient () of 0.004 and 0.99, respectively. The results showed that the presented model had an acceptable efficiency in assessing the probability of seismic vulnerability of the buried pipeline and analyzing the pollution of the aquifer based on different earthquake scenarios. The developed groundwater seismic vulnerability assessment model can be used for further analysis in future research.
Practical Applications
Earthquakes are one of the most important natural disasters, and have caused widespread financial, human, and environmental losses in different regions of the world, especially in seismic areas. The existence of faults and the possible deterioration of buried pipes makes earthquake crisis and its serious damage to humans and the environment more severe. One of the most important threats in this situation is the contamination of underground water with hydrocarbon substances due to leakage from the fuel transmission network. In this research, to evaluate the pollution of the aquifer due to the damage to the fuel transmission network, we developed a model using the machine learning method to analyze the vulnerability of the buried pipeline. The DRASTIC model also was used to evaluate aquifer pollution. To evaluate the presented model, the fuel transmission network and aquifer of Tehran, Iran, were studied. The results indicated acceptable performance of the proposed model for assessing the seismic vulnerability of groundwater. The presented model can be used for other areas.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
Some data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. All data, models, and code generated or used during the study appear in the published article.
Acknowledgments
The authors express their gratitude to the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company for providing data.
References
Al-Khazaali, M., and S. K. Vanapalli. 2018. “Axial force-displacement behaviour of a buried pipeline in saturated and unsaturated sand.” Géotechnique 69 (11): 986–1003. https://doi.org/10.1680/jgeot.17.p.116.
Anderson, R. T. 2000. The natural attenuation and engineered bioremediation of benzene in petroleum-contaminated aquifers under anaerobic conditions. Boston: Univ. of Massachusetts Amherst.
Badv, K., and K. E. Daryani. 2010. “An investigation into the upward and lateral soil-pipeline interaction in sand using finite difference method.” Iranian J. Sci. Technol., Trans. B: Eng. 34 (B4): 433–445.
Barbulescu, A. 2020. “Assessing groundwater vulnerability: DRASTIC and DRASTIC-like methods: A review.” Water 12 (5): 1356. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12051356.
Bera, A., B. P. Mukhopadhyay, P. Chowdhury, A. Ghosh, and S. Biswas. 2021. “Groundwater vulnerability assessment using GIS-based DRASTIC model in Nangasai River Basin, India with special emphasis on agricultural contamination.” Ecotoxicol. Environ. Saf. 214 (May): 112085. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoenv.2021.112085.
Cekirge, H. M. 2015. “Quantitative risk assessment for crude oil pipelines.” Int. J. Environ. Monit. Anal. 3 (3): 147–153.
Claesson, L., A. Skelton, C. Graham, C. Dietl, M. Mörth, P. Torssander, and I. Kockum. 2004. “Hydrogeochemical changes before and after a major earthquake.” Geology 32 (8): 641–644. https://doi.org/10.1130/G20542.1.
Daiyan, N., S. Kenny, R. Phillips, and R. Popescu. 2011. “Investigating pipeline–soil interaction under axial–lateral relative movements in sand.” Can. Geotech. J. 48 (11): 1683–1695. https://doi.org/10.1139/t11-061.
de Leeuw, L. W., A. Diambra, O. S. Kwon, and A. Sextos. 2022. “Modulating pipe-soil interface friction to influence HPHT offshore pipeline buckling.” Ocean Eng. 266 (Dec): 112713. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.112713.
Dong, J.-Q., S.-S. Zheng, X. K. Xie, F. Yang, S.-L. Che, and X.-H. Liu. 2023. “Seismic vulnerability analysis of pipeline considering the influence of near-fault pulse-type ground motion.” Eng. Mech. 40 (5): 104–116. https://doi.org/10.6052/j.issn.1000-4750.2021.10.0823.
Dong, X., W. Zhang, H. Shiri, and M. F. Randolph. 2021. “Large deformation coupled analysis of embedded pipeline–Soil lateral interaction.” Mar. Struct. 78 (Jul): 102971. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marstruc.2021.102971.
Esposito, S., I. Iervolino, F. Silvestri, A. d’Onofrio, A. Santo, F. Cavalieri, and P. Franchin. 2012. “Seismic risk analysis of lifelines: Preliminary results for the case-study of L’Aquila ENEL rete gas.” In Proc., 15th World Conf. of Earthquake Engineering, Lisbon Portugal, 2998. Kanpur, India: Indian Institute of Technology.
Germoso, C., O. Gonzalez, and F. Chinesta. 2021. “Seismic vulnerability assessment of buried pipelines: A 3D parametric study.” Soil Dyn. Earthquake Eng. 143 (Apr): 106627. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2021.106627.
Golbarg, F., G. Nabi Bidhendi, and H. Hoveidi. 2018. “Environmental management of oil pipelines risks in the wetland areas by Delphi and MCDM techniques: Case of Shadegan International Wetland, Iran.” Pollution 4 (2): 195–210. https://doi.org/10.22059/poll.2017.239568.300.
Guha, I., B. Whitney, R. Flores-Berrones, A. Barsainya, and G. Arya. 2013. “Earthquakes and the Indian pipeline industry.” J. Pipeline Eng. 12 (4): 3957–3967.
Huyck, C. K., R. T. Eguchi, R. M. Watkins, H. A. Seligson, S. Bucknam, and E. Bortugno. 2003. “URAMP (Utilities regional assessment of mitigation priorities)—A benefit-cost analysis tool for water, wastewater and drainage utilities: Software development.” In Advancing mitigation technologies and disaster response for lifeline systems, 484–493. Reston, VA: ASCE.
Ito, A., M. Okutsu, A. Furukawa, G. Shoji, and T. Suzuki. 2022. “Earthquake damage prediction of underground steel pipe with screw joint using machine learning.” In Lifelines 2022, 613–620. https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784484449.055.
Jafari, F., S. Javadi, G. Golmohammadi, K. Mohammadi, A. Khodadadi, and M. Mohammadzadeh. 2016. “Groundwater risk mapping prediction using mathematical modeling and the Monte Carlo technique.” Environ. Earth Sci. 75 (6): 491. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-016-5335-9.
Jang, W. S., B. Engel, J. Harbor, and L. Theller. 2017. “Aquifer vulnerability assessment for sustainable groundwater management using DRASTIC.” Water 9 (10): 792. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9100792.
Karamy Moghadam, A., and M. Mahdavi Adeli. 2020. “Application of artificial neural networks for seismic analysis and design of buried pipelines in heterogeneous soils.” J. Hydraul. Struct. 6 (4): 60–74. https://doi.org/10.22055/JHS.2021.35453.1153.
Li, F., W. Wang, J. Xu, J. Yi, and Q. Wang. 2019. “Comparative study on vulnerability assessment for urban buried gas pipeline network based on SVM and ANN methods.” Process Saf. Environ. Prot. 122 (Feb): 23–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psep.2018.11.014.
Liu, C. P., C. H. Wang, and L. S. Hwang. 2010. “Temporal variation of seepage water chemistry before and after the Hengchun Ms 7.2 earthquake in south Taiwan.” Geoderma 155 (1–2): 107–114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2009.12.001.
Makrakis, N., P. N. Psarropoulos, and Y. Tsompanakis. 2022. “ANN-based assessment of soft surface soil layers’ impact on fault rupture propagation and kinematic distress of gas pipelines.” Infrastructures 8 (1): 6. https://doi.org/10.3390/infrastructures8010006.
Malakootian, M., and J. Nouri. 2010. “Chemical variations of ground water affected by the earthquake in bam region.” Int. J. Environ. Res. 4 (3): 443–454. https://doi.org/10.22059/ijer.2010.229.
Martini, A., A. Rivola, and M. Troncossi. 2018. “Autocorrelation analysis of vibro-acoustic signals measured in a test field for water leak detection.” Appl. Sci. 8 (12): 2450. https://doi.org/10.3390/app8122450.
Miao, T. S., W. X. Lu, J. N. Luo, and J. Y. Guo. 2019. “Application of set pair analysis and uncertainty analysis in groundwater pollution assessment and prediction: A case study of a typical molybdenum mining area in central Jilin province, China.” Environ. Earth Sci. 78 (10): 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-019-8326-9.
Mohammadi, K., R. Niknam, and V. J. Majd. 2009. “Aquifer vulnerability assessment using GIS and fuzzy system: A case study in Tehran–Karaj aquifer, Iran.” Environ. Geol. 58 (2): 437–446. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00254-008-1514-7.
Moser, A. P., and S. Folkman. 2008. Buried pipe design. 3rd ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Companies.
Ni, P., S. Mangalathu, and K. Liu. 2020. “Enhanced fragility analysis of buried pipelines through Lasso regression.” Acta Geotech. 15 (2): 471–487. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11440-018-0719-5.
Noori, R., H. Ghahremanzadeh, B. Kløve, J. F. Adamowski, and A. Baghvand. 2019. “Modified-DRASTIC, modified-SINTACS and SI methods for groundwater vulnerability assessment in the southern Tehran aquifer.” J. Environ. Sci. Health, Part A 54 (1): 89–100. https://doi.org/10.1080/10934529.2018.1537728.
O’Rourke, M. J., X. Liu, and R. Flores-Berrones. 1995. “Steel pipe wrinkling due to longitudinal permanent ground deformation.” J. Transp. Eng. 121 (5): 443–451. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-947X(1995)121:5(443).
Papazachos, B. C., E. M. Scordilis, D. G. Panagiotopoulos, C. B. Papazachos, and G. F. Karakaisis. 2004. “Global relations between seismic fault parameters and moment magnitude of earthquakes.” Bull. Geol. Soc. Greece 36 (3): 1482–1489. https://doi.org/10.12681/bgsg.16538.
Qureshi, A., and A. H. Sayed. 2014. Situation analysis of the water resources of Lahore establishing a case for water stewardship, 1–45. Lahore, Pakistan: WWF-Pakistan and Cleaner Production Institute.
Raúl, F. B., B. J. Eduardo, and R. M. Cesar. 2019. “Seismic behavior of buried pipelines in Mexico city valley.” In Proc., Eighth Int. Conf. on Case Histories in Geotechnical Engineering, 49–56. Reston, VA: ASCE.
Rojstaczer, S., S. Wolf, and R. Michel. 1995. “Permeability enhancement in the shallow crust as a cause of earthquake-induced hydrological changes.” Nature 373 (6511): 237–239. https://doi.org/10.1038/373237a0.
SelÇuk, A. S., and M. S. Yücemen. 2000. “Reliability of lifeline networks with multiple sources under seismic hazard.” Nat. Hazards 21 (1): 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1008146906319.
Tanircan, G., N. Tsereteli, E. Garaveliev, B. Siyahi, O. Varazanashvili, T. Mammadli, Q. Yethirmishli, T. Cehlidze, A. Axundov, and E. Safak. 2011. “Seismic hazard assessment for southern Caucasus-eastern Turkey energy corridor.” In Vol. 13 of Proc., EGU Conf. Munich, Germany: Geophysical Research Abstracts.
Toprak, S., and F. Taskin. 2007. “Estimation of earthquake damage to buried pipelines caused by ground shaking.” Nat. Hazards 40 (1): 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-006-0002-1.
Vakov, A. V. 1996. “Relationships between earthquake magnitude, source geometry and slip mechanism.” Tectonophysics 261 (1–3): 97–113. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(96)82672-2.
Wells, D. L., and K. J. Coppersmith. 1994. “New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement.” Bull. Aeismological Soc. Am. 84 (4): 974–1002. https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0840040974.
Yu, H., Q. Wu, Y. Zeng, L. Zheng, L. Xu, S. Liu, and D. Wang. 2022. “Integrated variable weight model and improved DRASTIC model for groundwater vulnerability assessment in a shallow porous aquifer.” J. Hydrol. 608 (May): 127538. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127538.
Zhang, P., Y. Wang, and G. Qin. 2019. “A novel method to assess safety of buried pressure pipelines under non-random process seismic excitation based on cloud model.” Appl. Sci. 9 (4): 812. https://doi.org/10.3390/app9040812.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Pipeline Systems Engineering and Practice
Volume 15 • Issue 3 • August 2024
Copyright
© 2024 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jul 7, 2023
Accepted: Dec 4, 2023
Published online: Apr 22, 2024
Published in print: Aug 1, 2024
Discussion open until: Sep 22, 2024
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.