Copula-Based Probabilistic Approaches for Predicting Debris-Flow Runout Distances in the Wenchuan Earthquake Zone
Publication: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 8, Issue 1
Abstract
After the Wenchuan earthquake, frequent debris-flow disasters caused catastrophic damage to the infrastructures and inhabitants in the downstream. It is very important to properly determine the runout distances of debris flows to delineate potential hazard areas for the postearthquake mitigation work design and effective risk management. However, this is a difficult task due to the high variability and uncertainty of debris flows. This paper developed copula-based probabilistic approaches for predicting the runout distances of debris flows on depositional fans. The proposed approaches integrate the debris flow’s maximum runout distance (), debris-flow volume (), and catchment internal relief () into a three-dimensional copula-based probabilistic model. A probabilistic model of debris flows in the Wenchuan earthquake zone was developed based on the field investigation data of 133 channelized debris-flow events. The developed model is able to predict the possible maximum runout distances for a specific hazard level. The proposed approaches were validated using an independent field investigation dataset of debris flows. Results show that the proposed approaches properly estimate the maximum runout distances of debris flows in the Wenchuan earthquake zone for a specific probability level of 0.88.
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Data Availability Statement
All data in this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Project No. 52009037), the Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province of China (Project No. 2020CFB291), and the Open Research Fund of Rock Mechanics in Hydraulic Structural Engineering of Ministry of Education, Wuhan University (Project No. RMHSE1905). The authors thank Prof. Zhou from Chengdu University of Technology for providing the field data of debris flows in Wenchuan earthquake zone. The authors also are grateful to two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments and advice.
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ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 8 • Issue 1 • March 2022
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© 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: May 12, 2021
Accepted: Sep 8, 2021
Published online: Oct 19, 2021
Published in print: Mar 1, 2022
Discussion open until: Mar 19, 2022
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