A System Dynamics Model for a National PPP Program: The Egyptian Project Portfolio
Publication: Construction Research Congress 2024
ABSTRACT
Public-private partnerships (PPPs) have become a prevalent delivery method for large global projects. Previous research has examined individual Egyptian PPP projects; however, there is a notable absence of comprehensive analysis from a PPP program perspective, which is crucial to gain deeper insights into the program’s overall outcomes, including total number of projects, the invested capital value, and the extent of public funding. This paper proposes a system dynamics model for a national PPP portfolio focusing on Egypt to address this gap. It aims to provide a tool for practitioners and policymakers to study the entire PPP system and the factors affecting it. Four causal loops show how policymakers and investors must balance economic growth with social acceptability to develop effective infrastructure strategies. The findings demonstrated an excessive reliance on the Egyptian PPP program in the energy sector and unsolicited proposals. Hence, policies focused on strengthening public capacities to procure PPP projects may be needed to counteract this tendency and enhance competition. The Egyptian PPP program can also benefit by prioritizing investment in critical infrastructure projects, particularly in sectors historically underfunded in the PPP program, such as ICT, which is critical for fostering the benefits of Industry 4.0. This paper analyzes the national PPP program dynamics and offers PPP decision-makers valuable approaches to improve project portfolio outcomes.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this chapter.
REFERENCES
Alasad, R., I. Motawa, and S. Ougunlana. 2013. A system dynamics-based model for demand forecasting in PPP infrastructure projects–A case of toll roads. Organization, technology & management in construction: an international journal, 5(Special), pp.0–0.
Badran, Y. Risk analysis and contract management for Public Private Partnership projects in Egypt. 2013. American University in Cairo, Master’s Thesis. AUC Knowledge Fountain. https://fount.aucegypt.edu/etds/1229.
Biziorek, S., A. De Marco, and G. Castelblanco. 2023. “Public-Private Partnership National Programs through the Portfolio Perspective: A System Dynamics Model of the UK PFI/PF2 Programs.” 39th Annu. ARCOM Conf., 1–12. Leeds, UK: Association of Researchers in Construction Management.
Biziorek, S., A. De Marco, J. Guevara, and G. Castelblanco. 2024. “Enhancing the Public Investment in Public-Private Partnerships using System Dynamics Modeling.” 2023 Winter Simul. Conf. IEEE.
Boateng, P., Z. Chen, S. Ogunlana, and D. Ikediashi. 2012. A system dynamics approach to risks description in megaprojects development. Organization, Technology & Management in Construction: An International Journal,4, 593–603. https://doi.org/10.5592/otmcj.2012.3.3.
Castelblanco, G., P. Demagistris, A. De Marco, and E. M. Fenoaltea. 2024. “Multilayer Analysis in Complex Large Infrastructure Projects.” ProjMAN - Int. Conf. Proj. Manag.
Castelblanco, G., E. M. Fenoaltea, A. De Marco, P. Demagistris, S. Petruzzi, and D. Zeppegno. 2023. “Integrating Risk and Stakeholder Management in Complex Megaprojects: A Multilayer Network Analysis Approach.” Complex. Sustain. Megaprojects, Lect. Notes Civ. Eng. 342, 1–17.
Castelblanco, G., and J. Guevara. 2022. “Crisis Driven Literature in PPPs: A Network Analysis.” IOP Conf. Ser. Earth Environ. Sci., World Building Congress 2022, ed. Melbourne - Australia: IOP Publishing.
Castelblanco, G., J. Guevara, and P. Mendez-Gonzalez. 2022. “PPP Renegotiation Flight Simulator: A System Dynamics Model for Renegotiating PPPs after Pandemic Crisis.” Constr. Res. Congr. 2022, 100–108. Contracting, Project Delivery, and Legal Issues.
Castelblanco, G., and J. Guevara. 2020. “Risk Allocation in PPP Unsolicited and Solicited Proposals in Latin America: Pilot Study in Colombia.” Constr. Res. Congr. 2020, 1321–1329.
Guevara, J., D. Rojas, R. Khallaf, and G. Castelblanco. 2023. “Navigating PPP Renegotiations in the Wake of COVID-19: Insights from a Toll Road Program.” J. Leg. Aff. Disput. Resolut. Eng. Constr.
Guevara, J., L. Herrera, and J. Salazar. 2022. Interorganizational sponsor networks in road and social infrastructure PPP equity markets. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 148(4), 04022009. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0002255.
Ismail Kassim, F. A., A. H. Nawawi, M. B. Hanipah, T. K. Hwa, and M. A. S. Azmi. 2015. System dynamic model for public-private partnership of higher educational institution project in Malaysia. Pertanika Journal of Social Science and Humanities, 23.
Kamel, M., A. Montaser, and I. Abd El-Rashid. 2017, May. Public-private partnership in Egypt. In Proceedings of the Canadian Society for Civil Engineering Annual Conference (CSCE 2017), 6th CSCE/CRC International Construction Specialty Conference, Vancouver, BC, Canada (Vol. 9).
El Kawam, K., T. Narbaev, A. De Marco, and G. Castelblanco. 2024. “Decoding Eastern European National Public-Private Partnership Infrastructure Programs.” Eurasian Stud. Bus. Econ.
Khanzadi, M., F. Nasirzadeh, andM. Alipour. 2012. Integrating system dynamics and fuzzy logic modeling to determine concession period in BOT projects. Automation in construction, 22, pp.368–376.
Li, H. B. 2007. September. System dynamics application to PPP financing. In 2007 International Conference on Wireless Communications, Networking and Mobile Computing (pp. 4987–4990). IEEE.
Marcellino, M., G. Castelblanco, and A. De Marco. 2022. “Multiple Linear Regression Model for Project’s Risk Profile and DSCR.” IOP Conf. Ser. Mater. Sci. Eng. No.2 The Distillery, Glassfields, Avon Street, Bristol, BS2 OGR Tel +44 (0)117 929 7481: IOP Publishing.
Nasirzadeh, F., M. Khanzadi, and M. Rezaie. 2014. Dynamic modeling of the quantitative risk allocation in construction projects. International Journal of Project Management,32(3), 442–451.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2013.06.002.
Nasirzadeh, F., A. Afshar, and Z. M. Khan. 2008a. System dynamics approach for construction risk analysis, International Journal of Civil Engineering, 2008.
Nasirzadeh, F., A. Afshar, and M. Khanzadi. 2008b. Dynamic risk analysis in construction projects.Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering,35(8), 820–831. https://doi.org/10.1139/L08035.
Nasirzadeh, F., A. Afshar, M. Khanzadi, and S. Howick. 2008c. Integrating system dynamics and fuzzy logic modeling for construction risk management. Construction Management andEconomics,26(11), 1197–1212. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446190802459924.
Nyagormey, J. J., B. K. Baiden, G. Nani, and E. Adinyira. 2020. “Review on criteria for evaluating unsolicited public–private partnership PPP proposals from 2004 to 2018.” Int. J. Constr. Manag., 0 (0): 1–15. Taylor & Francis. https://doi.org/10.1080/15623599.2020.1783596.
Ortiz-Mendez, L., A. De Marco, and G. Castelblanco. 2023. “Building Information Modeling for Risk Management: A Literature Review.” Digit. Oppor. Challenges Business. ICBT 2022. Lect. Notes Networks Syst. vol 620., B. Alareeni, A. Hamdan, R. Khamis, and R. E. Khoury, eds., 8. Springer.
Osei-Kyei, R., A. P. C. Chan, and A. Dansoh. 2020. “Project selection index for unsolicited public–private partnership proposals.” Int. J. Constr. Manag., 20 (6): 555–566. Taylor & Francis. https://doi.org/10.1080/15623599.2019.1573480.
Othman, K., and R. Khallaf. 2022. Identification of the Barriers and Key Success Factors for Renewable Energy Public-Private Partnership Projects: A Continental Analysis. Buildings, 12(10), p.1511.
Páez‐Pérez, D., and M. Sánchez‐Silva. 2016. A dynamic principal‐agent framework for modeling the performance of infrastructure. European Journal of Operational Research, 254.
Pagoni, E. G., and G. Patroklos. 2019. A system dynamics model for the assessment of national public–private partnership programmes’ sustainable performance. Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory, 97, p.101949. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.simpat.2019.101949.
Rojas, D., J. Guevara, R. Khallaf, J. Salazar, A. De Marco, and G. Castelblanco. 2023. “NLP and SNA for understanding renegotiations of toll road PPPs amid the COVID-19 pandemic.”. Fargo, ND, USA: ISEC Press.
Ruiz, A., and J. Guevara. 2021. Energy efficiency strategies in the social housing sector: Dynamic considerations and policies. Journal of Management in Engineering, 37(4), 04021040. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.00009.
Salazar, J., J. Guevara, and G. Castelblanco. 2024. “Network Structures and Project Complexity in Environmental Impact Assessment Outcomes: A Colombian Case Study.” Constr. Res. Congr. 2024.
Salazar, J., J. Guevara, and K. Verhoest. 2021. Inferential analysis of road infrastructure PPP sponsor networks. Journal of Management in Engineering, 37(6), 04021069. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.000097.
Sihombing, L. B. 2017. Project finance and risk modeling using a system dynamics approach: A toll road project.Malaysian Journal of Industrial Technology,2,86–93.
Xu, Y., C. Sun, M. J. Skibniewski, A. P. Chan, J. F. Yeung, and H. Cheng. 2012. System Dynamics (SD)-based concession pricing model for PPP highway projects. International Journal of Project Management, 30(2), pp.240–251.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Construction Research Congress 2024
Pages: 507 - 516
History
Published online: Mar 18, 2024
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.