Research on Construction Risk Evaluation of Subway Stations under Heavy Rainfall Disaster Based on FTA-BN
Publication: ICCREM 2023
ABSTRACT
To explore the construction risk of subway stations under rainstorm disasters. This paper aims to develop a risk causation analysis and risk probability model that integrates fault tree analysis (FTA) and Bayesian network (BN) to overcome the shortcomings of conventional fault tree approaches. Firstly, an accident tree model was created by compiling 49 secondary disaster-derived events of rainy disasters into 4 categories: human, machine, management, and environment (HMME). Secondly, BN is used for forward reasoning, diagnosis, and excavation of subway station construction risk factors under rainstorm disasters. On this basis, BN is used for reverse reasoning and evaluation of system risks to find out the most sensitive factors in all aspects. Finally, based on the quantitative results, pertinent policies are proposed. Pertinent policies and methods for reduction and prevention are suggested based on the quantifiable results. This method identifies the risk-causing factors that result in construction risks in subway stations and serves as a guide for assessing risks in projects involving subway station construction.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
ICCREM 2023
Pages: 964 - 972
History
Published online: Nov 30, 2023
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Analysis (by type)
- Bayesian analysis
- Climates
- Construction engineering
- Construction management
- Construction methods
- Disaster risk management
- Disasters and hazards
- Engineering fundamentals
- Environmental engineering
- Infrastructure
- Meteorology
- Network analysis
- Precipitation
- Rail transportation
- Rainfall
- Risk management
- Statistical analysis (by type)
- Subways
- Transportation engineering
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