Research on Carbon Peaking Path of Construction Industry in Hubei Province in China Based on LMDI-STIRPAT Model
Publication: ICCREM 2023
ABSTRACT
Based on the relevant data of the carbon emissions of the construction industry in Hubei Province in China from 2000 to 2020, this paper uses the logarithmic mean Divisia index model (LMDI) to identify and analyze the influencing factors of the construction industry, establishes the regression equation for the influencing factors through the extended STIRPAT model, verifies the accuracy of the equation by fitting the historical data, and finally uses the scenario analysis method to set different scenario parameters to predict the peak carbon emissions and peak time of the construction industry in Hubei Province. The results show that the carbon emissions of the construction industry in Hubei Province in China showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2010 to 2019, and reached a peak in 2015. The energy mix is the main reason for the increase in carbon emissions, with energy intensity being the biggest inhibitor. The scenario analysis shows that the baseline scenario will peak in 2027, the low-carbon scenario will peak carbon in 2024, and the high-carbon scenario will not be able to peak before 2030.
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Information & Authors
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Published In
ICCREM 2023
Pages: 417 - 429
History
Published online: Nov 30, 2023
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Air pollution
- Analysis (by type)
- Business management
- Carbon fibers
- Construction engineering
- Construction industry
- Construction management
- Construction methods
- Data analysis
- Emissions
- Engineering fundamentals
- Engineering materials (by type)
- Environmental engineering
- Fibers
- Materials engineering
- Methodology (by type)
- Model accuracy
- Models (by type)
- Pollution
- Practice and Profession
- Regression analysis
- Research methods (by type)
- Statistical analysis (by type)
- Sustainable development
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