Development of Tsunami Frequency-Fatality Numbers (F-N) Curve for Coastal Communities Subjected to Cascadia Subduction Earthquakes
Publication: ASCE Inspire 2023
ABSTRACT
This study derives a tsunami F-N curve for Tofino, British Columbia, subjected to the tsunami threats from the Cascadia subduction megathrust earthquakes. An F-N curve is an exceedance frequency (F) plot in terms of the number of anticipated fatalities (N) and can be used for evaluating the adequacy of current tsunami risk situations, compared with the acceptable risk tolerability limits. To evaluate the tsunami fatality risks for residents and visitors in Tofino, a tsunami catastrophe risk model is developed by integrating stochastic rupture models of the Cascadia subduction events, high-resolution tsunami inundation simulations, and tsunami fatality rate functions. The obtained F-N curves for Tofino intersect with the local scrutiny line set by the UK Health and Safety Executive, indicating that the tsunami risks for Tofino residents and visitors are concerning. Thereby, when effective risk mitigation measures can be implemented, such actions should be pursued.
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Published In
ASCE Inspire 2023
Pages: 601 - 608
History
Published online: Nov 14, 2023
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Business management
- Disaster risk management
- Disasters and hazards
- Earthquakes
- Engineering fundamentals
- Geohazards
- Geotechnical engineering
- Health hazards
- Hydrologic engineering
- Hydrology
- Mathematics
- Models (by type)
- Natural disasters
- Practice and Profession
- Probability
- Public administration
- Public health and safety
- Public policy
- Runoff
- Runoff curve number
- Simulation models
- Stochastic processes
- Tsunamis
- Water and water resources
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