Chapter
Aug 30, 2023
Short-Term Bus Passenger Flow Forecasting Method Based on Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) Model
Authors: Jingyuan Ma [email protected], Jiancheng Weng [email protected], Chunyan Tang, Zixin Liu, and Jiyuan Yuan [email protected]Author Affiliations
Publication: CICTP 2023
ABSTRACT
This paper analyzes the time-varying patterns of urban bus passenger flow and predicts future short-term bus passenger flow, which helps public transport managers to predict bus passenger flow in advance and adjust bus scheduling plans. This paper constructs a short-term passenger flow forecasting method based on the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) model and introduces the three-structured Parzen Estimator Approach (TPE) to optimize the parameter space. Results showed that the prediction model proposed in this paper can make full use of the multi-feature vector data to predict the various passenger flow pattern and has a lower prediction error compared with the GBDT base model and other models. The model can further improve the accuracy of short-time passenger flow prediction and provide important quantitative data support for bus operation guarantee and transport scheduling plan optimization.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this chapter.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
History
Published online: Aug 30, 2023
Permissions
Request permissions for this article.
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Buses
- Ecosystems
- Engineering fundamentals
- Environmental engineering
- Errors (statistics)
- Flow (fluid dynamics)
- Flow patterns
- Fluid dynamics
- Fluid mechanics
- Forecasting
- Highway transportation
- Hydrologic engineering
- Infrastructure
- Mathematics
- Models (by type)
- Optimization models
- Passengers
- Public transportation
- Statistics
- Transportation engineering
- Trees
- Vegetation
- Vehicles
- Water and water resources
Authors
Affiliations
1Beijing Key Laboratory of Traffic Engineering, Beijing Univ. of Technology, Beijing, China. Email: [email protected]
2Beijing Key Laboratory of Traffic Engineering, Beijing Univ. of Technology, Beijing, China. Email: [email protected]
Chunyan Tang
3College of Transportation Engineering, Dalian Maritime Univ., Dalian, China
Zixin Liu
4Beijing-Dublin International College, Beijing Univ. of Technology, Beijing, China
5Beijing Key Laboratory of Traffic Engineering, Beijing Univ. of Technology, Beijing, China. Email: [email protected]
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.
View Options
Get Access
Access content
Please select your options to get access
Log in/Register
Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members:
Please log in to see member pricing
Purchase
Save for later Item saved, go to cart Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
Get Access
Access content
Please select your options to get access
Log in/Register
Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members:
Please log in to see member pricing
Purchase
Save for later Item saved, go to cart Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.