Analysis and Prediction of Pollutant Emissions Characteristics of Highway Road Areas in Key Ecological Function Zones

Using monitoring data from the G30 Yongshan section in the Qilian Mountains Glacier and Water Containment Key Ecological Function Area from 2019 to 2021, the characteristics of pollutant concentrations in the road area were analyzed. The effects of factors such as traffic and meteorological conditions on the PM2.5 and PM10 concentration levels in the road area were analyzed, and future predictions over a one-year period were made using SARIMA models. First, based on field monitoring data, the impact area of the highway pollutants is defined as a 200 m area of the road. Second, it was found that there is a “weekend effect” and “high in winter and low in summer effect,” and that the positive relationship with traffic volume, temperature, and wind speed of the road area is significant. The models’ goodness of fit R² is 0.74 and 0.786, respectively, which shows that the models’ fit and prediction are good.