Evolution of Risk-Based Cost and Schedule Estimates for North American Infrastructure Projects: What Have We Learned?
Publication: International Conference on Transportation and Development 2021
ABSTRACT
Risk-based cost and schedule estimating approaches have been adopted by many public agencies in recent years to help address the problem of cost and schedule overrun in transportation and other infrastructure projects. However, limited research into the effectiveness of these approaches has been conducted. This paper reviews the progression of the risk-based cost and schedule estimates for 41 representative infrastructure projects across North America (which remain anonymous) that underwent multiple risk assessments at various stages of development using a consistent approach and for which the project scope remained relatively stable. The upper percentile cost and schedule estimates reduced over time, on average, while the base estimates without contingency increased. However, the upper percentile estimates increased over time on some projects for a variety of reasons. Analysis of the estimate trends for these projects is provided along with a discussion of lessons learned and recommendations for utilizing the process for maximum benefit.
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International Conference on Transportation and Development 2021
Pages: 145 - 156
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© 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Published online: Jun 4, 2021
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