Driver Response to Variable Message Signs on Urban Arterial Roads in Xi’an

Variable message signs (VMSs) are one of the intelligent transportation systems (ITSs) technologies and widely used to disseminate traffic information under various circumstances to assist drivers en-route in making route choice decisions. Here, we investigate drivers’ responses to VMS. The driver’s response to VMS is divided into three groups: staying on the original route, hesitation to select the alternative route, and changing to the alternative route. Using the collected data, three models which are an ordered logit model (OLM), an ordered probit model (OPM), and a multinomial logit model (MNL), were respectively developed to predict drivers’ route choice decision making with VMS messages. We found that drivers who are well-educated, travel during non-peak hours, and travel frequently will likely change their routes corresponding to VMS information. From the perspective of the overall prediction accuracy, the proposed MNL is superior to OLM and OPM.