Arrival and Departure Track Utilization Adjustment Plan for Passenger Station Considering Fluctuation of Train Arrival Time

To improve preciseness of fluctuating time estimation and the quality of the adjustment plan for stations under particular situations, this study estimates the fluctuation range of train arrival time by distribution hypothesis, and tests the hypothesis and interval estimation in mathematical statistics methods. After analyzing the impact of train running time fluctuations on arrival, stop, and departure operations, the arrival and departure track utilization adjustment plan for passenger stations considering the fluctuation of train arrival time chance constraint model (CCM) is established, aiming at balancing use of the arrival and departure track and considering the time fluctuation of running trains. Lastly, the genetic algorithm is used to acquire the solution. As the result shows, estimating train arrival time by mathematical statistics makes the error 30% lower, and the CCM weakens the influence of time fluctuation and balances the use of the arrival and departure track under particular situations.