Research on Affordable Apartment Demand Forecasting Based on the Apartment Affordability: A Case Study of Tianjin Xiqing District

In recent years, China’s commercial apartment price had raised rapidly, which lead to the urban residents’ apartment problem became more and more serious. And the affordable apartment had become the main way to ease the living problem for low-income groups. Although the affordable apartment was vigorous expansion in China, from the overall look, the imbalance between supply and demand was still obviously. For balancing the demand and supply of affordable apartment, this paper establishes the demand forecasting model of affordable apartment which based on residents’ apartment affordability. Compared with income level, apartment affordability can more reliable to forecast the demand. The empirical analysis is conducted by using the data of Tianjin Xiqing District on the basis of the questionnaire to forecast the affordable apartment demand in 2016. The result not only can show the feasibility of the model but also can show that compared with the grey model, the model in this paper is more suitable for forecasting the affordable apartment demand.