Water Resources Policy Development Using Hydrologic and Systems Dynamics Modeling: A Case Study for East Africa

This chapter presents a hydrologic and system dynamics modeling approach to help readers understand the effects of drought due to limited water availability and explores methods of alleviating or improving these undesirable consequences. The modeling focuses on water availability, land change, livestock production, agricultural production, and social welfare. In the chapter, the hydrologic and systems dynamic modeling focuses on a region in East Africa known for its arid climate. The hydrological modeling is done through the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to determine water availability throughout the region. These data are then introduced into the system dynamics modeling software, Vensim, to model the complex interdependencies among water availability, land degradation, livestock and agriculture production, and socioeconomic impacts and introduce new policy options.