Logistics Development and Industry Change in Tea-Horse Road between Szechwan and Granger Causality Test

In history, Tea-Horse Road was a key linkage between logistics and industry in southwestern China. With the progress of the "Go West" campaign, logistics there have been rapidly developing — is it also interacting with industry or not? Through analysis of the time-series data of those two factors in Tea-Horse Road between Szechwan and Tibet, we find that a co-integration relationship only exists in the logistics and second industry. Moreover, the latter of the two is Granger cause for the former. From 1992 to 2012, there were two important inflection points:1997 and 2008. Surprisingly, there's no direct effect between the physical distribution and the structure of employment. All finds indicate that the factor of logistics development is not endogenous, but extraneous; and the factor of industry change does not depend on employment restructuring, but on natural resources consumption.