Urban Route Travel Time Distribution Estimation Considering Spillback:An Analytical Model

Travel time - especially reliable travel time information - is important both for travelers and traffic managers. In this paper, an urban travel time distribution model based on shockwave theory and queuing theory will be developed. The model considers stochastic processes at intersections and takes into account signal coordination between intersections. The queue spillback phenomenon is explicitly modelled using shockwave theory in a probabilistic way. The model's estimated results are further compared with VISSIM simulated probe vehicle data. It shows that the proposed route travel time distribution estimation model can perform well in conditions where spillback happens.