Research on the Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting Method Based on Chaos Theory

Short-term traffic flow forecasting is an important means to solve the traffic congestion aiming at real-time traffic control and inducement. Based on chaos theory, this paper uses simple zero-order local-region method to forecast the short-term traffic flow in an intersection. First, it rebuilds the phase space and determines the delay time parameter. Then it analyzes the traffic volumes of main road in an intersection, chooses the best short-term forecast cycle, predicts the traffic volumes of the next cycle, and evaluates the feasibility of the cycle. Based on the Webster method, this paper also calculates a new signal timing of an intersection to ensure the traffic of main road and reduce delays while evaluating the new program. Finally using an intersection of Jiaozuo city in Henan province as an example, by forecasting its short-term flow, optimizing the timing in the intersection, and comparing the service indicators of new time with old time, we can prove that this method is feasible.