Traffic Demand Forecasting Method for Auto Parts Industrial Park Considering Both the Production Location Impact and Mixed Traffic Characteristics

Integrated views with both procedure-oriented and object-oriented, this paper proposed a traffic demand forecasting method suitable for auto parts industrial park considering the production location besides mixed traffic characteristics based on the traditional four-step mode. The framework and steps of the traditional four-step mode was first improved. Traffic volume calculation method for the park staff travel and induced traffic estimation method caused by production freight transportation are respectively given. Furthermore, the trip distribution characteristics were analyzed with the production location and the trip distribution matrix of the traffic zones was modeled and solved by principle of probability model. The traffic assignment model is based on the relationship of the "path-turn-link" and is proposed to improve All-or-Nothing Network Loading Algorithm on the shortest path. The research suggests this forecasting method can reflect a great influence of the production location on traffic impact assessment of auto parts industrial park so as to enhance the accuracy and rationality of traffic demand forecast results for it.