Chapter
Aug 19, 2013
The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario
Authors: K. Porter, L. Jones, S. Ross, J. Borrero, J. Bwarie, D. Dykstra, E.L. Geist, … Show All … , L. Johnson, S. Kirby, K. Long, P. Lynett, K. Miller, C. Mortensen, S. Perry, G. Plumlee, C. Real, L. Ritchie, C. Scawthorn, H. K. Thio, A. Wein, P. Whitmore, R. Wilson, and N. Wood Show FewerAuthor Affiliations
Publication: Ports 2013: Success through Diversification
Abstract
The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.
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© 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Published online: Aug 19, 2013
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K. Porter
University of Colorado at Boulder and SPA Risk LLC
L. Jones
Natural Hazards Mission Area, US Geological Survey
S. Ross
USGS Pacific Coastal & Marine Science Center, US Geological Survey
J. Borrero
University of Southern California
J. Bwarie
US Geological Survey
D. Dykstra
Moffatt and Nichol
E.L. Geist
US Geological Survey
L. Johnson
Laurie Johnson Consulting
S. Kirby
US Geological Survey
K. Long
California Emergency Management Agency
P. Lynett
University of Southern California
K. Miller
California Emergency Management Agency
C. Mortensen
US Geological Survey
S. Perry
Natural Hazards Mission Area, US Geological Survey
G. Plumlee
US Geological Survey
C. Real
California Geological Survey
L. Ritchie
University of Colorado at Boulder Natural Hazards Center
C. Scawthorn
SPA Risk LLC
H. K. Thio
URS Corporation
A. Wein
US Geological Survey
P. Whitmore
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
R. Wilson
California Geological Survey
N. Wood
US Geological Survey
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