A Multi-Participant, Multi-Criteria Analysis of Energy Supply Sources for Fairbanks, Alaska

The selection of a future energy source for Fairbanks, Alaska, is a multi-criteria, multi-decision maker (MCMDM) problem as it involves a range of stakeholders who must consider economic, sociopolitical, and environmental criteria in deciding the best project. The primary motivation for the new energy project is to provide an additional affordable heating and electric source to local residents. Proposed projects range from liquid-natural gas pipelines to hydropower and differ greatly in development costs, environmental impacts, and political support. Stakeholder interests vary from local and state government officials, to local and international business developers, and to residents and environmentalists. Traditionally, water and resource MCMDM problems have been simplified to analyze a single decision maker (DM) for multiple criteria; this work defines model criteria at different levels based on input from stakeholder representatives through a collaborative process. Model inputs can be ordinal when cardinal information is unavailable, thereby increasing the model's flexibility for a wide range of source data. The model employs a range of social choice, fall back bargaining, and MCDM to solve the problem. Uncertainty in the model is characterized by a Monte Carlo analysis, which measures sensitivity of the solution from the range of inputs provided by stakeholder data. Given the economic and social components included in this MCMDM analysis, characterizing the uncertainty associated with each outcome is crucial for policy interpretation. This work provides a new application for MCMDM problems combining a range of social choice and game theoretic methods with a rigorous sensitivity analysis to inform decision makers about the most feasible and stable alternatives.