Chapter
Jan 24, 2013
Research on China Railway Freight Econometric Analysis and Modeling
Publication: ICLEM 2012: Logistics for Sustained Economic Development—Technology and Management for Efficiency
Abstract
Based on China railway freight volume statistics from 1978 to 2010, this paper analyzes railway freight time series' numeral characteristic with the using of econometrics method. According to freight time series unit root test, prove that freight time series is a two-order fractional integration serial. Observing the residual of freight time series after two differences the paper got autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation, then established China railway freight volume ARIMA forecasting model. Through testing the forecasting modal, it was found that the result is satisfactory. Finally, the paper forecasts the railway freight volume of 2012 and 2013 and the precision is high.
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ICLEM 2012: Logistics for Sustained Economic Development—Technology and Management for Efficiency
Pages: 462 - 468
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© 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Published online: Jan 24, 2013
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School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiao Tong University, Chengdu, China. E-mail: [email protected]
Shenzhen Institute of Building Research Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, China. E-mail: [email protected]
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ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.