Vulnerability Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Groundwater Salinity in the Nile Delta Coastal Region—Egypt

Though gifted with the Nile River, limitation in fresh water resources compared to expanding development activities add pressure to groundwater for fulfilling essential supply in Egypt. Therefore, attention is paid in groundwater management in facing development process pressures as well as initiated extra concerns of climate changes. Being hydraulically connected with the sea, groundwater in coastal aquifer has special water characteristics and flow conditions. This study presents a vulnerability assessment for a study area that acquires a strategic environmental and socio-economic importance, located in the North-Eastern sector of the Nile Delta, with special reference to the impact of Climate Change-related Sea Level Rise (SLR) on salt water intrusion into aquifer. The study tracks changes in sea water intrusion in terms of advancement of saltwater/freshwater interface inland. Analytical methods as well as numerical modeling approaches have been considered for modeling saltwater/freshwater interface behavior. Accordingly, interface dynamics and potential lateral and upward groundwater movements in the region of study in face of predicted SLR in years 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100 have been investigated. Results showed that saltwater/freshwater interface advancement of 35 meters by year 2025, 180 meters in 2050, 509 meters in 2075, and 1065.8 m by year 2100 are predicted within the study area as a result of projected climate change and SLR; if no adaptation measures are implemented. While considering ground levels, soil characteristics and land-use patterns, vulnerability analysis for the study area highlighted particular sub-regions at risk within the study area as being more susceptible to difficulties and deserves priority in precautionary management actions. In view of the concluded results, a review of prospective adaptation measures to be considered for alleviating adverse impact of Climate Change-related SLR are discussed in order to safeguard socio-economic assets and environmental state. However, it is recommended to investigate potential effectiveness and viability of alternative measures with periodic monitoring.