The Development Tendency Analysis and Forecasting Method of Urban Freight Volume Based on the Industrial Reconstructing

Generally, the urban freight volume increase makes positive association with the social economy development. To the cities with different industrial structure, the degree of association has gaps and even some negative correlations. The classic forecasting methods of freight volume, which usually take the historical data of the GDP or the freight volume as the basis, have general flexibility but cannot reveal the impression that the urban development and industrial reconstructing gave to freight volume variation, and the forecasting precision is not desirable. This paper adopts a combination forecasting method, make positive analysis by the case of Shanghai, using the freight volume per GDP forecasting method and sub-industry regression forecasting method to get original predicted result, then use the weighted mean to get the final result with the select the weight number by the development tendency of urban industrial structure. The result is proved to be more accurate after test, and the method would be of theory and practical value in logistics planning region.