Chapter
Apr 26, 2012
Forecasting URT Share Rate Based on MNL Model
Authors: Liang Tang [email protected], Xiucheng Guo [email protected], Jiangyu Ran [email protected], and Ming He [email protected]Author Affiliations
Publication: ICCTP 2011: Towards Sustainable Transportation Systems
Abstract
This paper builds a two-stage model to predict the Urban Rail Transit (URT) share rate of the cities with no rail presently. The first stage will predict the proportion of the transport structure with no rail using transfer curve. At the second stage, some influencing factors are selected as characteristic variables of the utility function to forecast passengers transferring from other traffic modes to rail based on multinomial logit model (MNL). Maximum likelihood estimation is adopted to calibrate the parameters. Finally, take Suzhou as an example to apply the model and analyze the sensitivity of each factor. The results shows that the URT share rate can be improved by reducing waiting time, access time, rail fares and increasing the speed of rail, among which reducing rail fares works best, reducing access time a little less and reducing waiting time the least.
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© 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Published online: Apr 26, 2012
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Graduate Research Assistant, School of Transportation, Southeast University Sipailou #2, Nanjing, 210096, P. R. China.E-mail: [email protected]
Professor, School of Transportation, Southeast University, Sipailou #2, Nanjing, 210096, P. R. China.E-mail: [email protected]
Graduate Research Assistant, School of Transportation, Southeast University, Sipailou #2, Nanjing, 210096, P. R. China.E-mail: [email protected]
Graduate Research Assistant, School of Transportation, Southeast University, Sipailou #2, Nanjing, 210096, P. R. China.E-mail: [email protected]
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