Operational Hazard Weather Forecast in East and South Asia on 5–15 Day Time Scale

Significant predictability is found in medium-range weather systems over East and South Asia, particularly in those convective hazard weather events bringing numerous obstacles to the transportation and infrastructures. Based on a paid global numerical model product, we developed a real-time warning system to provide medium-range (5–15 days) forecast on danger events. The forecast is probabilistic to help the decision makers to estimate the weather. In 2007 and 2008 three flooding events on the Brahmaputra River were well predicted 10 days in advance. The medium-range genesis forecast skill of tropical cyclone (TC), a relative small-scale but much destructive weather system, is also explored on examples of super hurricanes Nargis and Marakot. For both hurricanes the maximum winds and minimum center pressure are well predicted. The forecast bias might be due to the global model's resolution limit or the missing of statistical rendering.