The Prediction Platform of Ship Traffic Accident Based on Chaotic Theory

We all know that the ship traffic accident is a very complex event induced by many kinds of factors, which are persons, ships, and environment. In this paper chaotic characteristics appeared in vessel traffic accident is analyzed first. The whole system has high nonlinear characteristics because of these factors. So we can forecast the traffic based on chaos theory, and then present the chaotic adaptive prediction model. Theoretically, this model is suitable for the vessel traffic accident prediction whose history record contains only small data sets but with much noise. Actually, the following simulation results on the chaos' experimental platform, which includes phase space reconstruction, chaotic identification, and chaotic prediction on MATLAB software, showing the effectiveness of the model described above which high prediction accuracy has.