Chapter
Apr 26, 2012
Model for Forecasting the Share of Different Modes in Urban Passenger Transport Based on Sustainable Development
Authors: Lixian Lin [email protected], Yaru Li, and Liang GeAuthor Affiliations
Publication: ICLEM 2010: Logistics For Sustained Economic Development: Infrastructure, Information, Integration
Abstract
The paper suggests a macro-optimization model for the sake of forecasting the share of different traffic modes in different characteristic years reasonably and promoting the sustainable development of urban transport maximally. The model is beneficial to the sustainable development for forecasting the share from the aspect of sustainable development of economy, society and ecology. On the basis of this macro-optimization model and in consideration of the main factors affecting urban transport structure the study builds the models by distance diversion curve for forecasting the share of bicycle, walking, public transport, car and motorcycle. Finally, a practical example is introduced to illustrate that the models not only remedy the deficiency of traditional model which is usually built by considering only one factor. Thus, the results indicate that the model is more accurate and more workable.
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© 2010 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Published online: Apr 26, 2012
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Research Institute of Highway, Ministry of Transport, No. 8 Xi Tu Cheng Road, Haidian District, Beijing (zip code: 100088).E-mail: [email protected]
Yaru Li
Research Institute of Highway, Ministry of Transport, No. 8 Xi Tu Cheng Road, Haidian District, Beijing (zip code: 100088)
Liang Ge
Transport Planning and Research Institute, No. 6 Jia, Shu Guang Xi Li, Chaoyang District, Beijing (zip code: 100028)
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