Traffic Volume Forecasting under Snow Disasters in the Heilongjiang Freeway System

In winters, many freeways in Heilongjiang province are affected by snow. Under snow disaster circumstances, many freeways have to be closed down. Under these circumstances, determining how to forecast the traffic volume on highway segments and establish a management strategy is very important. After a lot of field data surveys and data collection, we can forecast the traffic generation volume of freeway junctions based on the Grey Model, and set up a new highway-impedance model under the snow disaster. This is based on statistic and theoretic methods, then distribution of the traffic volume to every highway segment according to dynamic traffic distribution model. Then forecasting the traffic volume on highway segments affected by the snow disaster can be accomplished. This research will provide a theoretical basis for the control and management of the freeway system under snow disaster circumstances in snow affected areas.