Capacity Reliability of Road Network under Adverse Weather Conditions Based on Fuzzy Theory

Under adverse weather conditions, both traffic system and physical environment have strong uncertainty and road network capacity is also changing and has strong fuzziness under dynamic situations. Based on analysis of the concept and meaning of road network capability, which has uncertain meaning, the capacity reliability of road network is taken as a fuzzy and random variable, therefore, fuzzy probability was applied to study it. The calculation and simulation method for reliability with random traffic flow and fuzzy road network capacity are discussed. The Bootstrap method based on experiential data was introduced to analyze reliability with fuzzy road network capacity. The area of fuzzy variable was given based on form and relative parameters in consideration of the practical requirements of traffic management.