Chapter
Apr 26, 2012
Gray-Periodic Extensional Combinatorial Model for Road Traffic Accidents in Cold Regions
Authors: S. An and L. Li [email protected]Author Affiliations
Publication: ICCTP 2009: Critical Issues In Transportation Systems Planning, Development, and Management
Abstract
Traffic accidents in cold regions have both general trends of change and periodic fluctuation due to the cyclical changes of the climate. Considering that Grey System Prediction Model can reflect the general trends of change visually, and Periodic Extensional Prediction Model mainly reflects the periodic fluctuation, the paper adopts the way for the Gray-Periodic Extensional Combinatorial Model to predict the traffic accidents in cold regions. This model considers both the development trends and periodic fluctuation of the traffic accidents. Finally an example analysis is given to fit and predict the road traffic accidents in cold regions, and the analysis results showed that the Gray-Periodic Extensional Combinatorial Model was suitable for the prediction of road traffic accidents in cold regions, and the fitting and prediction accuracy was much higher, which provides theory reference and practical basis for the traffic accident management and control in cold regions.
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© 2009 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Published online: Apr 26, 2012
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S. An
School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin P.R. China, 150009
School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin P.R. China, 150009 and School of Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin P.R. China, 1 50001;. E-mail: [email protected]
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