Traffic Density Analysis of Proposed Ferry and Tourism Service Ships' Expansion for the Shanghai World Expo 2010

In order to guarantee the realization of the World Expo passenger water traffic World Expo to share 10% of the traffic, a proposal has been made to the Coordination Bureau of Shanghai World Expo to increase the frequency and coverage of ferry service in Huangpu River. Under this background, this paper focuses on evaluating the usability of the expanded ferry and tourism ship system. A simulation model is created to estimate the number of vessel interactions in the current system and their increases caused by three alternative expansion plans, especially in rush hours. The output of the simulation model shows the frequency of vessel interactions across the World Expo Area, thus representing the level of congestion under each alternative and risk analysis. The simulation is also used to evaluate potential risk reduction measures. Detailed risk management recommendations have been developed and provided to the shanghai dongjiadu MSA.